Market Commentary: Averages Trading Sideways, DOW Off 310 Points As Volume Falls

Written by Gary

Noontime markets are in a somewhat sideways holding pattern in that Mr. Market hasn't decided what he wants to do next.

By noon the trend was still down, but flatting a bit on falling volume. The DOW is still off triple points and WTI oil trades below 51.

If it is not falling oil pushing down the averages, it must be Europe!

Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performers at the midday and the session market direction meter is 100+ % bearish. We remain mostly conservatively bullish (even now), neutral in other words. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend (like this one) could get very aggressive in the short-term and any volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500MACD has turned down, but remains above zero at +6.66. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your 'dogs' to the pound.

Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warnings of a 'long-term' reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.

Investing.com members' sentiments are 52 % Bearish.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 54.9 % bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here ) I expect a market reversal at or before ~25.0 should the markets start to descend.

StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at +6.13. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at52.76 %. (Chart Here) The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20's.

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 59.62. (Chart Here) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash.

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 75.00. (Chart Here) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction.

StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 20.55. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 70.42. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10,635. (Chart Here) Markets move inverse to institutional selling. We are above the resistance (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance (triple top) at ~11,900, watch to see if these numbers decline back down. Next stop down is 10600, 9750, then 9250, and 8500.

The DOW at 12:30 is at 17520 down 315 or -1.76%. (Historical High 18,103.45)

The SP500 is at 2022 down 36 or -1.76%. (Historical High 2,093.55)

SPY is at 201.83 down 3.60 or -1.75%.

The $RUT is at 1188 down 11 or -1.29%.

NASDAQ is at 4665 down 61 or -1.31%. (Historical High 5132.52)

NASDAQ 100 is at 4171 down 59 or -1.40%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 21.27 up 3.49 or 19.62%. Bearish Movement

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been net negative and the current bias is negative.

WTI oil is trading between 52.09 (resistance) and 50.02 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 50.21. (Chart Here) (~50 appears to be a support.)

Brent Crude is trading between 55.85 (resistance) and 52.69 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 53.06. (Chart Here)

Gold rose from 1186.80 earlier to 1202.04 and is currently trading up at 1197.40. The current intra-session trend is elevated and sideways. (Chart Here)

Dr. Copper is at 2.764 falling from 2.811 earlier. (Chart Here)

The US dollar is trading between 92.04 (highest since 2005 and ~91 is a very substantial resistance) and 91.56 and is currently trading down at 91.76, the bias is currently sideways. (Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. This support has gotten much stronger since August, 2014 and isn't likely to fall easily. The current level (~91 / 92) is the resistance (substantial) and could be a triple top of sorts. Historical chart Here.