Market Briefing For Tuesday, February 28

A 'collision course' between Trumponomics (higher deficits) and the Fed is of course an argument out there; but before accepting this latest bearish argument about what derails this market move consider it's due for a pause anyway.

Therefore any reaction to Tuesday night's coming (quasi-State-of-the-Union) Speech (or inference about the Fed moving at it's mid-March meeting) might be coincidental, not really correlated to Trump's remarks, or interpretations that it is a 'causal' factor should the market reverse a bit to lower levels.
 

We explore the goings-on of one more day of historic upside consecutive moves by the Dow Industrials. New S&P highs as well. So let me abbreviate.

Basically I'm suggesting a 'collision course' with higher rates isn't pertinent in an immediate sense. Nevertheless I believe the President will call for the big series of measures you've heard about, which will contribute to 'rising Debt' levels, and thus a call for higher rates.

Ideally (whether doable or not) Trump will advocate a 'revenue neutral' type of approach, as an effort to head-off opposition (consolidating agencies and functions may be part of that, while spending more on Defense and perhaps a friendly word or two about NASA and the space advances; many of which were planned and developed previously, but come to fruition fairly soon).

In-sum:

Nothing's changed; a 'possibly' new story alleging how and who 'might' be behind some alleged Russian-Trump propaganda, presuming it's just that (and if the conversations relate to trying to improve relations I'm not sure why everyone has a problem with that; for sure Russian interference in politics is problematic, but so is Saudi Arabian or Chinese for that matter, as is now being suggested by some).

Moving to 'centrist politics' would help; and I suspect you'll get a bit calmer (hopefully less self-absorbed) President Trump, realizing this is about our Nation's revival and not self-adulation (and I think he's hearing that a lot).

It might be useful if the President opines that the goal is not reversing all of globalism, but containing the degradation of sovereignty and of course trade erosion. I believe he says that, but doesn't have a simple phrase to expand on what we've often discussed: too much of a good thing is often not good.

Daily action - clearly the market is not behaving bubbleliciously as of yet. It is extended, and Warren Buffet may have unnecessarily calmed investors a bit (fine by us; but we're still on the lookout for a short-term peak).

For now the S&P 2350-70 range has just slightly been reached which does not yet justify raising the levels to 2360-80; though that's likely forthcoming.
 

I am open to the idea we've discussed of a sort of 'buy the run-up' and 'fade (or sell) the event of the Speech; but again that depends on what he says. Certainly it hinges largely on taxes and perhaps Healthcare. The people for sure want to see enough that it difuses the idea that nothing's happening; a clear fiction given what's already happened with respect to jobs and even regulations (yes some not so welcome; some certainly welcomed).