SPX futures rose to 7751.10 this morning, near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 7762.42. A retracement may go higher, all the way to, but not exceeding, the top tick at 7844.52. However, most retracements fall within the confines of the Fibonacci gradients. The Cycles Model infers a rise in volatility later this week, usually associated with a breakout or breakdown. So the market is trying to decide whether to go higher (to challenge the top) or lower. Hedge funds have reduced their exposure while retail investors are buying at a rate not seen since 2017. The breaking point on the downside is the Diagonal trendline at 7675.00 today.
Zerohedge reports, “US futures are higher as blowout results from SpaceX and a monster preannouncement from Super Micro gave the battered AI trade a reason to bounce, while Elon Musk’s open endorsement of a SpaceX-Tesla merger added to the buzz…”
The premarket VIX is challenging its prior trading channel trendline at 17.31 this morning. The Cycles Model anticipates a possible reversal later this morning. Should that happen, the VIX may begin to rise toward the upper Triangle trendline, near 24.00. A breakout may be universally recognized as it approaches the Cycle Top at 25.18.
The US 10-year Bond Yield continues to climb up the rising Intermediate support at 50.95 this morning. There; may be a slight risk of falling back toward the 52-day Moving Average at 49.59. However, the retracment fractal may be complete at the low of 50.37. That comment is brought forward by an indication of a possible minor Cycle low this weekend.
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