Market Analysis - Friday, July 17

SPX futures probed to 7587.80 in the overnight market, but dropped back down to 7549.70 this morning. Its positioning remains neutral as it remains above Intermediate support at 7481.44, a critical floor.  Should it go higher, the SPX may rise toward 7650.00, a new all-time high. However, the outcome is not certain. A decline beneath 7500.00 puts us on full alert to a change in trend. The Cycles Model infers that the new Master Cycle may decline to mid-September.

The premarket VIX has risen to mid-Cycle resistance at 18.69 thus far, offering a buy signal above the 52-day Moving Average. The decline beneath 15.00, the estimated level of the lower Triangle trendline, may have signaled the completion of the Triangle formation. There may be an outside chance of a “tail” being formed in the next few days, however, all of the necessary item have been completed.

The US 10-year Bond Yield has gapped down this morning, confirming the initial sell signal made at the Cycle Top at 46.13. Further confirmation may be made beneath the next critical support at 44.92. The decline may be gathering momentum, with more strength apparing early next week. The Cycles Model indicates the decline may proceed to early September wwith a potential target near the Cycle Bottom at 39.20.

The  US Dollar is consolidating between the Intermediate support at 100.61 and the neckline at 100.80 this morning. The fractal structure indicates a possible decline to the 52-day Moving Averages at 100.00. The Cycles Model offers up to 3 weeks to accomplish this, suggesting the decline may go lower. Should it do so, the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation may be transferred to  the June 24 high at 101.80.