EURUSD
Technical
The EUR/USD broke its rising wedge formation at the start of February. So far, the trading conditions have been subtle. There is plenty of room for price to drop to the support level above 1.1200. Currently it is too late to be in a short position for a swing trade but short term bias favors the bears. A break below the super strong level of support at 1.12712 is the signal we are looking for to short the Euro until 1.12120
Fundamental
Yearly GDP has fallen in the Eurozone as expected and the ECB will speak on the risks and hardships that the Union is faced with. Volatility is expected during Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Starting Monday March 11th the European Union is holding meetings regarding government policy. Finance ministers are meeting to discuss the troubles with the debt load on sovereign banks and Italian and Greek loans. Keep an eye out for CPI data on Friday March 15th.
AUDUSD
Technical
The head and shoulders formation on the AUDUSD currency pair might soon break support. We have been tracking the Australian dollar for a few weeks now and the currency looks like it is finally ready to drop lower. Currently the AUDUSD is bouncing off neckline support which is keeping from the trade being triggered. As soon as we have a close below support at 0.70435 the currency is likely to have a strong impulse movement to the downside. We could test the flashcrash support at 0.67500 from January 2nd. The AO indicator confirms the increasing pressure on the Australian dollar.
Fundamental
The RBA has decided to keep the interest rate stable in March with an inclination that they are “open” to lower rates if the world slowdown of economical growth is to persist into the 2nd and 3rd quarter. Yearly GDP has fallen to 2.3% with quarterly GDP dropping to 0.2%. The forecast looks similarly bleak with a slowdown even further on the horizon. Volatility is expected during Non-Farm Payrolls and during the week of March 11th with consumer confidence data sets.
Crude Oil
Technical
WTI Crude remains in a very tight consolidation. This is generally a way for traders to put on more size. The technical pattern of a head and shoulders break is in play as well as a break through the Fibonnacci level of 38.2%. We remain bullish due to the price action being so tilted to the upside with very little movement to the downside. We will explain why this occurs in the fundamental section of our analysis. Price is hesitant around the 200 EMA and once that level is broken the upside is massive. Price could grow to the point of 63.75 within a few weeks.
Fundamental
Institutional Investors have been increasing their exposure to this asset over the last 3 weeks. A record increase since July 2017. This is where the smart money gets into big positions before a strong uptrend occurs.
Prices of oil have continued to trend higher. OPEC and its allies have initiated higher supply cuts which will certainly cause prices to rise. The united states have added sanctions against Venezuela due to the political turmoil in the country so additional supply drop to the overall market is induced. The United states is producing oil at record rates but this does not outweigh the supply cuts all over the world.
US stockpiles rose more that expected. Inventories grew by 7.1 million barrels to a total of 453 million barrels in a report from the US Energy Information Administration.
Analytical Department Olymp Trade.
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