Now, in today's video, we have to look at what the markets are doing. NASDAQ (QQQ) is sliding again, down about 2/3 of a percent. S&P (SPY) has turned negative after
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opening higher today. Oil continues to creep up. Where are these markets going?
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I'm going to give you some key levels and forecast. But the one thing I'm going to tell you right now is this is the most long I have been in this market
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this entire year. I came into the market this year being heavily short the S&P,
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the NASDAQ, and individual names. I've slowly moved out of a lot of those shorts recently. Still a little exposure, but now rotating into heavily
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long positions. And I'm going to show you why in this video. All right, let's get right into it. Here's the S&P 500
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intraday. We opened higher on the day and we came down bare flagged and then continued lower. Notice we are net
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negative on the day. If we flip over to this daily chart, we are down about a quarter of 1% with about an hour and 15 minutes left in the trading day. Now,
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the kicker here is this. Notice this again, high pivot right here at this trend line. Where is this trend line? a parallel that literally gave me the lows
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going back to COVID, the bare market of 2022 and the liberation tariff sell-off low. I took that parallel to the highs
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of the bull market in 2021 and look at what we tagged right up here. That was your major bull market high right there.
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We came in, we then created a rounded top, which is classic of market tops. It tells you institutions are unloading while making sure their analysts are
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constantly upgrading price targets to get the retail crowd to continue to go in and buy stocks. And now we're seeing
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the rollover come in. And again, now S&P now down a third of 1% as we continue to move lower. Now, having said that,
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there's some things we want to keep an eye on. So, ultimately, there's a few levels that we're starting to get into,
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which is why I have started to go in along. Now, I'm not leveraged long, so I want to be clear on that, right? So again, I still have some shorts out
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there that if we come a little bit lower, I'll move out of the remainder of the shorts and then I still have room to continue to add. So essentially, think
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about it like this. I'm now entering a zone where I'm starting to accumulate long positions. Okay? So starting means
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I'm not going all in. I'm just starting to nibble more and more and more. And I've nibbled a fair amount at this point, but I still have more to go if I
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want to. And that's the kicker. I have maneuverability in trading. Now, if we go back to the reasoning here, it's very simple. Okay? So, if we look at this, we
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have our parallel. And what I want to do now is bring up this, and I want to throw our 50% fib or 50% retrace of the parallel on the charts. And look at the
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beauty of this, guys. I got to show you this. So, look at the high pivot here,
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the high here, the high here, and then we pierced here, but then we came back right there. We have this high, we have this area here. Notice how this midpoint of the parallel is very significant.
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Well, look at how close we are to the midpoint. We're literally now within about 30 points on the S&P 500 of that midpoint. Now, the midpoint is the
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starter of where I would think we start to get a bounce, right? So, in other words, it could go a little bit lower, and I'm going to show you why and how.
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Based on pure technical analysis, we have to recognize we have this area here. This was our former major high in late 2024, early 2025 before the liberation tariff sell-off low. Okay,
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that now again and in technical analysis, what we learn is that major former pivot highs before corrections once we break above them, they now
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become support on the way back in. So that would be another zone to look for a support. So if we go back to the chart and we put in a trend line right here,
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we now have a zone, right? So we're really looking at a zone here of technical support that goes from the
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midpoint here, which we're just about in, down to this area. This is my zone where I'm starting to accumulate. And
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sure, I've accumulated a little bit just prior to that level because I want to get skin in the game, but as I as you know, I still have some shorts out there. Now, let's be clear on this. If
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we get down here, I'm out of all of my shorts. All right. Uh even right here,
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I'll take some more off the table and then down here, I'll take the rest off.
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And I'll just rotate that money into the long trade here. The other thing to note here is if we take our Fibonacci tool and we bring our low from liberation day
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to our all-time highs up here on the S&P 500, what do we notice? Right inside of that range from the dotted line to my
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lowest point right here, there's a 382 Fibonacci level. So essentially what I'm telling you is that there's a 200 point
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range on the S&P here where we likely will have technical support. And again, that is a key zone. No doubt about it.
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And that's why I am accumulating in this range. It's really a fantastic range.
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Now, a lot of people out there are going to watch this and say, "Yeah, but it's so scary. You know, this thing with Iran is only escalating. It's going to get
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crazier. I'm hearing $200 per barrel oil.
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Don't buy into it." That's the emotional kind of lunacy that is starting to creep in. It's what keeps investors from being
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so fearful they don't buy at the lows on a market. Just like the greed side where they hear it's going to infinity and the markets will never go down is why they
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buy at the highs when they should be selling and the markets come back in.
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Essentially, it creates the human emotion of greed and fear, the gamblers's mindset and the survival mindset. They create the exact opposite
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of what you should be doing, which is why I follow the charts because it's very regimented. It's very linear. It's very logical. And that's really what you
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want to do. And it doesn't mean you're always right. I certainly am not always right. But it gets you in the mindset of being, okay, what are my probabilities?
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Not what is the emotion telling me to freak out and do. All right. So, we have our level on the S&P 500 basically kissing right here down into this range.
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This is where I would expect a bounce.
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Now, by the way, is this the low on the market? Are we going to go into a bull market? Heck no. Heck no. All right. So just be clear, you know, whether we
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bounce here or we come down here and bounce or we come down to the lowest point and bounce, it's going to be a tremendous bounce. All right? If the straits straight of Hermuz is opened,
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you're going to see a 5 to 10% rally in the stock market. But I don't think you see new all-time highs because the fundamental issues in the economy that
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were there before oil spiked in March are still there. In fact, they probably been aggravated and exacerbated during this period. All right? Right? So, even
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if oil comes back to 70, it doesn't solve all the underlying issues. If anything, it made it worse. Even if the price comes down, it's still not going to make it all go away. And so, my thesis here is that even if we bounce,
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let's say we come here and we get a big bounce right back into this range. You can see this area right here.
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Eventually, we curl over and we come all the way down here. Okay? And then even down here later this year, early 2027.
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And this is really the endgame where I'm thinking the target is. This is again a target price that essentially tells us
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that we go back to what has worked for the last five to six years. We had our low from COVID, our low from the bare market and our liberation selloff low.
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And notice all off of those we got these big moves to the upside, right? And so we can just use that to our advantage again and think that okay, if we go down
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there, we should have a very significant technical bounce on the charts. All right, quickly just I want to show you a couple other things here. I'm just
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getting rid of this to keep my chart clean. But if we go to the NASDAQ, look at what we're hitting today. The midpoint we're actually hitting that today, which is again, I picked up some
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tech stocks. I have some Microsoft (MSFT). I have some Meta (META). You know, some of these things. By the way, Meta is having a great bounce today. So, that's number one. And then what do we know here?
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Look, there's your number two. So,
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here's your range from essentially right here at 2,700 down to 2,100. The 600 point range, which is about 3% on the
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NASDAQ. This is your buy zone. And again, very clean, very beautiful parallel. This one only goes back to
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2021 bull market high, bare market 2020 lows, 2022 lows, 2025 tariff low, and the bull market high. But this again,
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here's your zone right in here where I expect a rip roaring bounce in the market. Now, just to quickly go over oil, oil is creeping higher. Now, a lot of people look at this and say, "Wow,
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this is an uptrend in oil." I see it differently. I see a topping tail with a bearish parallel forming. Look at this bearish parallel. Let me use my parallel
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tool so you guys can see this. And again, what we see here is we connect these through. Notice how it literally goes through low, low, and low here. So
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there's three points. We bring it up here. We could literally go up on oil all the way up to 110, 111, and we'd
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still be stuck within that inside bar pattern, the drop and the inside bar like this, and then eventually the draw down. And that's what I'm seeing here.
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You can see again beautiful little parallel high pivot to low to low to low. That means that again just on the short term here we could see this
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actually come up here and then get rejected maybe a little bounce and then eventually a big break to the downside.
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So keep your eyes on this guys. This is what I'm seeing in the markets right now. Like I said and I always try to be super open and transparent. And by the
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way if you if you're a member of Smart Money Stocks and ETFs you see my literal live account in that service at verifiedinvesting.com. literally all my positions, my longs,
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etc. And I am more long now than I have been at any point this year. Still a few shorts out there to kind of, you know,
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hedge, if you will. But again, I will continue to add as we come in here for what I expect to be a 5 to 7% almost
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immediate rally when something breaks in the Middle East where things start to move again there in the straight of Hormuz. Watch and we'll see. As always
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folks, you know, I'm not shy about telling you even if it I get flack for it. I'm always here to tell you what I'm doing, what I think, and what the charts are seeing. All right, have a great rest




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