With Meta and Tesla expected to post results after the bell, Mag-7 earnings are forecast to grow 36.2% this quarter, versus 30.7% for the S&P 500 — the narrowest growth spread since 2023.
Nvidia remains the dominant driver, contributing nearly 61% of the group’s earnings growth. Excluding Nvidia, the “Mag-6” earnings growth rate drops to 18.7%, trailing the 29.1% growth expected for the S&P 493 and a sign of improving earnings breadth.
A recurring theme to watch this quarter is the impact of mark-to-market (MTM) investment gains from hyperscalers. Last quarter (Q2), MTM gains boosted index-level earnings growth by approximately 18 percentage points, more than double the seven-percentage-point contribution in Q1.
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