Mag-7 earnings are forecast to grow 32.2% in Q2, versus 26.0% for the S&P 500 — the narrowest growth spread since 2023.
Nvidia remains the dominant driver, contributing nearly 65% of the group’s earnings growth. Excluding Nvidia, the “Mag-6” earnings growth rate drops to 14.8%, trailing the 24.2% growth expected for the S&P 493 and a sign of improving earnings breadth.
One item to watch this quarter: mark-to-market investment gains (MTM). In Q1, Alphabet and Amazon benefited from a combined $53 billion uplift from their Anthropic investments, representing 48% of Alphabet’s pre-tax income and 39% of Amazon’s. Excluding these MTM gains, headline S&P 500 earnings growth would have been 22.3% instead of 29.4%, highlighting how much these investment gains inflated reported earnings growth.
Read LSEG’s latest 2026 Mid-Year Outlook.
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