Key Events In EMEA For The Week Of Feb. 21

Look out for CPI data from Serbia and Croatia, GDP releases from Mexico and Croatia, and a rate hike in Hungary.

Hungary: Copy-paste central bank decision

The National Bank of Hungary is facing a tough challenge next week, but we believe that the central bank will take its time (until the March Inflation Report) to reassess its tightening cycle. Thus, we see a copy-paste decision from January, which means a 50bp hike in the base rate and a 30bp tightening in the one-week deposit rate. However, the tone could be adjusted due to the inflation surprise in January, thus the forward guidance will probably point to an acceleration in the rate hike cycle from March. Data-wise, next week will bring us some labor market data, painting a strengthening pro-inflationary picture with double-digit wage growth and an unemployment rate equivalent to full employment.