June 2020 ECRI's WLI Improvement Continues But Continues In Contraction

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward improved remains deep in contraction and remains at a level at the values seen during the Great Recession.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Please note that the coronavirus is a black swan event and the decline is more immediate and not lagging off six months as one would expect. We are in a recession.

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Eases

Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.

On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."
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ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) eased to 131.5, while the growth rate rose further to -12.6%.

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ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.

The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.

For a quick glance at the WLI's performance, please see the chart below.

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U.S. Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The May economy's rate of growth (released in June) showed the rate of growth marginally improved and continues to show economic contraction.

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U.S. Lagging Index:

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The May economy's rate of growth (released in june) showed the rate of growth declined.

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source: ECRI