July 2020 BLS Jobs Situation - Employment Grew 1,763,000 But Still Down 12,572,000 Year-To-Date

The headline seasonally adjusted BLS job growth showed a very good job gain but still under expectations, with the unemployment rate improving from 11.1% to 10.2 %.

Analyst Opinion of the BLS Employment Situation

Employment recovery from the coronavirus continues. However, readers are advised that the basis of the BLS numbers are from the middle of July (which are extrapolated to the end of the month). Still, these numbers are much better than ADP estimated on Wednesday.

A summary from the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.8 million in July, and the unemployment rate fell to 10.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In July, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, government, retail trade, professional and business services, other services, and health care.

The economically intuitive sectors were very positive for economic growth.

The rate of further recovery will be dependant on the coronavirus effects.

• The year-over-year rate of growth for employment improved by 1.0 % this month (red line on the graph below which is off the chart). The year-over-year growth rate is 10.1 % below the rate of growth one year ago.

• This month's report internals (comparing household to establishment data sets) somewhat correlated with the household survey showing seasonally adjusted employment adding 1,350,000 vs the headline establishment number improving 1,763,000. The point here is that part of the headlines are from the household survey (such as the unemployment rate) and part is from the establishment survey (job growth). From a survey control point of view - the common element is job growth - and if they do not match, your confidence in either survey is diminished. [note that the household survey includes ALL job growth, not just non-farm).
• The household survey removed 62,000 people from the labor force which explains much of the drop in unemployment.
• The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)'s monthly Jobs Report is at the end of this post.

A summary of the employment situation:

• BLS reported: +1,763K (non-farm) and 1,462 K (non-farm private). The headline unemployment rate improved from 11.1% to 10.2 %.
• ADP reported: 167,000 (non-farm private)
• In Econintersect's July 2020 economic forecast released in late June 2020, we estimated non-farm private payroll growth at -530,000 (based on economic potential) and -3,300.000 (fudged based on current overrun / under-run of economic potential).
• The market expected (from Econoday):

The BLS reports seasonally adjusted data - manipulated with multiple seasonal adjustment factors, and Econintersect believes the unadjusted data gives a clearer picture of the job situation.

The following chart compares the job gains/losses this month with the same month historically.

Year-to-date unadjusted employment growth is 12,572,000 people below the pace of last year - and the worst year-to-date growth ever.

 

The last month's headline employment gains were revised down. Generally speaking, the INITIAL employment gain estimate is overstated when the economy is slowing and understated when the economy is accelerating.

Concentrating on the labor force growth Vs. employment growth - it should be noted that the trend shows that the slack between labor force growth and employment growth was narrowing slowly before the coronavirus hit.

Most of the analysis below uses unadjusted data and presents an alternative view of the headline data.

Unemployment

The BLS reported U-3 (headline) unemployment was 10.2 % with the U-6 "all-in" unemployment rate (including those working part-time who want a full-time job improved from 18.0 % to 16.5 %. These numbers are volatile as they are created from the household survey.

BLS U-3 Headline Unemployment (red line, left axis), U-6 All In Unemployment (blue line, left axis), and Median Duration of Unemployment (green line, right axis)

Econintersect has an interpretation of employment supply slack using the BLS employment-population ratio, demonstrated by the graph below. The employment-population ratio improved from 54.6 to 55.1

Employment-Population Ratio

The employment/population ratio is determined by the household survey.

• Econintersect uses employment-population ratios to monitor the jobless situation. The headline unemployment number requires the BLS to guess at the size of the workforce, then guess again who is employed or not employed. In employment-population ratios, the population is a given and the guess is who is employed.
• This ratio has been in a general uptrend since the beginning of 2014. The employment-population ratio tells you the percent of the population with a job. Each 0.1 % increment represents approximately 300,000 jobs. [Note: these are seasonally adjusted numbers - and we are relying on the BLS to get this seasonal adjustment factor correct]. An unchanged ratio would be telling you that job growth was around 150,000 - as this is approximately the new entries to the labor market caused by population growth.
• The growth in employment since the Great Recession has been in full-time jobs.

 

Employment Metrics

The growth trend in the establishment survey's non-farm payroll year-over-year growth rate was trending up in 2018. The year-over-year growth rate declined in 2019 but 2020 was hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

Unadjusted Non-Farm Payrolls Year-over-Year Growth

Another way to view employment is to watch the total hours worked where trends vary based on periods selected but the coronavirus has caused a significant loss of hours worked.

Percent Change Year-over-Year Non-Farm Private Weekly Hours Worked

The bullets below use seasonally adjusted data from the establishment survey except where indicated:

• Average hours worked (table B-2) worsened from 34.6 to 34.5. A rising number normally indicates an expanding economy [except in this case]
• Government employment improved 301,000 (301K) with the Federal Government up 27K, state governments up 33K, and local governments up 241K.
• The big contributor to employment improvement this month was government (301k), food services (502K), health care/social services (191K), temporary help (143.7K), and retail trade (258.3K)
• Manufacturing employment was up 26K and construction was up 20K.
• The unemployment rate (from the household survey) for people between 20 and 24 (Table A-10) improve from 19.8 % to 18.3 %. This number is produced by a survey and is very volatile.
• Average hourly earnings (Table B-3) was up $0.07 to $29.39

Private Employment: Average Hourly Earnings

Economic Metrics

Economic markers used to benchmark economic growth (all from the establishment survey).

The truck employment was up 2.0K

Truck Transport Employment - Year-over-Year Change

Temporary help was up 143.7 K.

Temporary Help Employment - Year-over-Year Change

Econintersect believes the transport sector is a forward indicator. Others look at temporary help as a forward indicator.

Food for Thought

Who are the victims in this employment situation? It is not people over 55.

Index of Employment Levels - 55 and up (blue line), 45 to 54 (red line), 35 to 44 (green line), 25 to 34 (purple line), 20 to 24 (light blue line), and 16 to 19 (orange line)

Women are doing better than men.

Index of Employment Levels - Men (blue line) vs Women (red line)

Mom and Pop employment remains historically low.

The less education one has the less chance of finding a job.

Index of Employment Levels - University graduate (blue line), Some college or AA degree (orange line), high school graduates (green line), and high school dropouts (red line)

Here is an indexed view of employment levels.

Index of Employment Levels (from the BLS Establishment Survey) - Hispanic (blue line), African American (red line), and White (green line)

However, keep in mind that population growth is different for each group. Here is a look at employment to population ratios which clearly shows NO group has recovered from the Great Recession:

Employment / Population Ratios (from the BLS Household Survey) - Hispanic (blue line), African American (red line), and White (green line)

National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)'s monthly Jobs Report Statement:

Majority of Small Businesses Are Attempting to Hire, Labor Market Remains Weak

According to NFIB's monthly jobs report, over half (51%) of small business owners reported hiring or trying to hire in July. Forty-four percent (86 percent of those hiring or trying to hire) reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill, up 1 point. Fifty-two percent of construction firms reported few or no qualified applicants and 37% cited the shortage of qualified labor as their top business problem.

"This summer has been a challenging time for small businesses, and we see the evidence of that in the July jobs report," said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. "Owners are doing everything they can to get their employees back to work but there have been obstacles, including Unemployment Insurance and government re-opening regulations, that are causing further obstacles to small businesses."

Seasonally adjusted, a net 15% of owners reported raising compensation, and a net 14% plan to do so in the coming months. Eight percent of owners cited labor costs as their top problem.

Firms decreased employment by -0.06 workers per firm on average over the past few months. Up one point from June, 7% of owners reported increasing employment an average of 3.8 workers per firm. Seasonally adjusted, 18% (down 2 points) reported reducing employment an average of 2.3 workers per firm.

A seasonally adjusted net 18% plan to create new jobs in the next three months, up 2 points from June and 17 percentage points above April.

Also seasonally adjusted, 30% of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down 2 points from June's strong reading. The shift from unemployed to employed remains slow but is improving.

Twenty-seven percent have job openings for skilled workers, unchanged from June's report. Eleven percent of owners have job openings for unskilled labor. Up from last month, 25% of owners reported few qualified applicants for their open positions and 19% reported none. Forty-six percent of the job openings in construction are for skilled workers, up 5 points.

Click here to view the entire NFIB Jobs Report.

The full Small Business Economic Trends report will be released on Tuesday, August 11th.

Caveat on the use of BLS Jobs Data

The monthly headline data ends up being significantly revised for months after the initial release - and is subject also to annual revisions. The question remains how seriously can you take the data when first released.

Econintersect Contributor Jeff Miller has the following description of BLS methodology:

1. An initial report of a survey of establishments. Even if the survey sample was perfect (and we all know that it is not) and the response rate was 100% (which it is not) the sampling error alone for a 90% confidence interval is +/- 100K jobs.
2. The report is revised to reflect additional responses over the next two months.
3. There is an adjustment to account for job creation — much-maligned and misunderstood by nearly everyone.
4. The final data are benchmarked against the state employment data every year. This usually shows that the overall process was very good, but it led to major downward adjustments at the time of the recession. More recently, the BLS estimates have been too low.

ADP (blue line) versus BLS (red line) - Monthly Jobs Growth Comparison

However, there is some discussion that neither the ADP nor BLS numbers are correct - as both are derived by a sampling methodology. The answer could be that there is no correct answer in real-time - and that it is best to look at the trends. As has been noted, all eventually end up correlating.

The BLS uses seasonally adjusted data for its headline numbers. The seasonally adjusted employment data is produced by an algorithm. The following graph which shows unadjusted job growth - seasonal adjustments spread employment growth over the entire year. Employment does not really grow in the second half of the year and always falls significantly in January.

Non-Seasonally Adjusted Employment - Private Sector

There is the proverbial question on what is minimal job growth each month required to allow for new entrants to the market. Depending on mindset, this answer varies. According to Investopdia, the number is between 100,000 and 150,000. The Wall Street Journal is citing 125K. Mark Zandi said 150K. Econintersect is going with Mark Zandi's number:

• In Econintersect's June 2014 economic forecast released in late May, we estimated non-farm payroll growth at 160,000 (unadjusted based on economic potential) and 229,000 (fudged based on current overrun of economic potential).
• If Econintersect uses employment-population ratios, the correct number would be the number where this ratio improved. Using the graph below, the ratio began to improve starting a little after mid-year. This corresponds to the period where the 12-month rolling average of job gains hit 150,000.

Employment to Population Ratio

Note: The ratio could be fine-tuned by adjusting to the ratio of employment to working-age population rather than the total population. However, this would not change the big picture that an increase of somewhere around 150,000 (+/-) is needed for the growing population numbers. We have an estimated 140k - 160k. The number might possibly be within the range 125k - 175k. Econintersect cannot find a reason to support the estimates below 125k.

The question of how changing demographics impact the employment numbers is at the margins of analysis. Econintersect will publish more on this fine-tuning going forward, both in-house research and the work of others