Jobless Claims Rise; The Gas Price Low Is Probably In

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Initial jobless claims may have ended their recent downtrend.

Initial claims rose 19,000 to 219,000 from last week’s 5-month low. The 4-week average rose 250 from its 4-month low to 206,500. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, increased from 15,000 to 1,361,000:

The downtrend of the past 2 months was almost certainly a positive side-effect of lower gas prices. But in the past 2.5 weeks, according to GasBuddy, gas prices have risen over $.20/gallon. With OPEC deliberately cutting back production in order to cause a shortage in Europe and the US this winter (to aid Russia), it is very likely that gas prices will continue to rise again. If so, I expect jobless claims to rise again as well.

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