Jobless Claims Continue To Portray A “Low Hire, *No* Fire” Economy

Let’s take our usual weekly look at jobless claims, along with stock prices 1/2 of my “quick and dirty” forecasting method.

And they continued to forecast expansion. Initial claims declined -8,000 for the week to 208,000, with the four week moving average declining -4,750 to 214,250. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims declined -16,000 to 1.805 million:

On the YoY% basis more important for forecasting, initial claims were down -5.9%, the four week average down -6.4%, and continuing claims down -7.4%:

We continue with the “low hire, no fire” economy. Here’s what that suggests for the unemployment rate in the next several months based on the historical record:

This suggests that the unemployment rate is going to decline further in the next several months.