Japan's Top Credit Analyst Predicts 30Y Treasury Yield Plunging To Zero In 2 Years

To some, it may be the top-tick announcement of the year. To others, it is merely the latest admission that the world is headed into a deflationary singularity, just before everything explodes into a hyperinflationary supernova.

In a time when one strategist after another is pointing to the latest rebound in rates and bond yields, and furiously declaring - to anyone who cares to listen - that this is it, yields are now and forever done going lower, Toshihiro Uomoto, Nomura Holdings’s chief credit strategist, in a report issued overnight, forecast that the yield on 30-year US Treasuries could plunge to zero in two years as a result of yield-starved "Japanese money" flooding the US and chasing returns of US Treasuries.

 

The resulting decline in global yields will "weigh on consumer sentiment, put pressure on banks’ interest income, and may result in more stimulus from central banks" the Nomura analyst predicts. But who is he: just another deflationary crackpot with bonds to sell to clients? Actually, Uomoto has been ranked as Japan’s top credit analyst by Nikkei Veritas for three of the past four years according to Bloomberg.

And before the laughing begins, let's recall that about a year ago one could count on zero fingers the number of experts and analysts who said there would be $13 trillion in negative yield debt right about now.

According to Uomoto, even if the BOJ slightly reduces its JGB monetization, its effect would be limited to marginal steepening in Japan’s sovereign yield curve. Such a move from the BOJ is unlikely to undermine downward pressure from the negative interest rate policy. He adds that a reduction in JGB buying could be a realistic option as negative rate policy may be seen as having sufficiently lowered yield curve.

“The trend toward declining interest revenues from falling rates will accelerate and give birth to a vicious circle,” he wrote. Uomoto also told Bloomberg that he didn’t see Treasury yields going negative because the Fed isn’t in the market buying bonds, unlike the Bank of Japan.

We would take the literal under on that, because to anyone who says the Fed isn't monetizing bonds, the response is very simple: "yet." After all someone will have to fund all those trillions in fisccal stimulus programs that either Trump or Hillary are preparing to unveil.