January 2019 ECRI's WLI Growth Rate Index Improves But Still Remains In Contraction

By Steven Hansen of Global Economic Intersection

Managing Partner at Econintersect LLC • Jan 19, 2019 at 3:06 PM EST

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) increased to 145.1 as WLI growth ticked up to -6.2%.

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward marginally improved but remains in contraction.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

The current forecast is a slight economic contraction six months from today.

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Rises

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) increased to 145.1 as WLI growth ticked up to -6.2%.

The WLI is just one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.

For more on ECRI's cyclical outlook, please see links below for information that we have made public:

For a quick glance at the WLI's performance, please see the chart below:

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The November index value (issued in December) shows the rate of economic growth marginally declined.

(Click on image to enlarge)

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures further subsided in December.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

(Click on image to enlarge)

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The November economy's rate of growth (released in December) showed the rate of growth improved.

U.S. Lagging Index:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Disclaimer:

On desktop click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click the "Full Site" link to download the data. Click here to review ECRI's recent real-time track record.

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