ISM Non-Manufacturing: Growth In May

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the May Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), also known as the ISM Services PMI. The headline Composite Index is at 56.9 percent, up 1.4 from 55.5 last month. Today's number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 55.5 percent.

Here is the report summary:

“The NMI® registered 56.9 percent, which is 1.4 percentage points higher than the April reading of 55.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 61.2 percent, 1.7 percentage points higher than the April reading of 59.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 118th consecutive month, at a faster rate in May. The New Orders Index registered 58.6 percent; 0.5 percentage point higher than the reading of 58.1 percent in April. The Employment Index increased 4.4 percentage points in May to 58.1 percent from the April reading of 53.7 percent. The Prices Index decreased 0.3 percentage point from the April reading of 55.7 percent to 55.4 percent, indicating that prices increased in May for the 24th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector continues to experience a slight uptick in business activity, but it is still leveling off overall. Respondents are mostly optimistic about overall business conditions, but concerns remain about tariffs and employment resources.” [Source]

Unlike its much older kin, the ISM Manufacturing Series, there is relatively little history for ISM's Non-Manufacturing data, especially for the headline Composite Index, which dates from 2008. The chart below shows the Non-Manufacturing Composite. We have only a single recession to gauge is behavior as a business cycle indicator.

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The more interesting and useful subcomponent is the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index. The latest data point at 61.2 percent is up 1.7 from a seasonally adjusted 59.5 the previous month.

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For a diffusion index, this can be an extremely volatile indicator, hence the addition of a six-month moving average to help us visualize the short-term trends.

Theoretically, this indicator should become more useful as the time frame of its coverage expands. Manufacturing may be a more sensitive barometer than Non-Manufacturing activity, but we are increasingly a services-oriented economy, which explains our intention to keep this series on the radar.

Here is a table showing the trend in the underlying components.

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Here is a link to our coverage of the latest ISM Manufacturing report.