Is World Trade Volume a Leading Indicator?

Menzie Chinn
By Menzie Chinn of Econbrowser
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin •

The slowdown could be coming from tariffs, or from decelerating economic growth.

The slowdown could be coming from tariffs, or from decelerating economic growth. You decide…

 

Figure 1: World trade volume, 2010=100 (blue). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, and NBER. 

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