Is It Real?

Menzie Chinn
By Menzie Chinn of Econbrowser
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin •

The recent rise in 10-year Treasury yields is primarily driven by surging real rates rather than inflation expectations.

Source: DepositPhotos

Rise in 10 year rates is mostly showing up in real rates, as proxied by TIPS.

Figure 1: Change since 2/27/202 6 in ten year Treasury constant maturity yield (blue), on the run yield as of 2:30pm CT (light blue +), TIPS (red), all in %. Source: Treasury, and authors calculations.

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