Iran Nuclear Talks Reported to Make Positive Progress. Two Major Crude Oil Futures Plunge, Erasing Gains From Nearly the Past Two Weeks

On June 9, media reports cited White House officials stating that negotiations on the nuclear issue are achieving positive results. Impacted by this news, the two major crude oil futures plunged. As of press time, WTI crude futures fell 4.04% to $87.61, erasing gains from the past two weeks; Brent crude futures dropped 3.53% to $90.92.

On the news front, Saudi TV quoted a White House official reporting that negotiations for an agreement to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons are making positive progress.

Yesterday, Trump stated that a peace agreement between Iran and Israel could be reached within two or three days, and the Strait of Hormuz would open immediately. Trump told reporters Monday night that a deal to end the war with Iran could be finalized in two or three days, with the Strait of Hormuz opening immediately upon signing. This follows his repeated recent assertions that a deal is close, though no such agreement has yet materialized.

It is reported that oil prices have surged by approximately 30% cumulatively since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. Iran retaliated by attacking tankers and laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, causing shipping volumes in the strait to plummet and triggering the largest oil supply disruption in history.

Market analysis indicates that global oil inventories buffered the impact of the supply disruption, preventing an extreme spike in oil prices. However, with the summer demand peak approaching and inventories depleting rapidly, oil prices could surge significantly later this year.

JPMorgan estimates that approximately 2 million barrels of oil are currently being smuggled through the Strait of Hormuz daily via tankers with their signals turned off.