IPO Of The Week: The Habit Restaurants

On Thursday, Nasdaq welcomed The Habit Restaurants, Inc. (HABT) to its ranks:

Nasdaq (NDAQ) announced that trading of The Habit Restaurants, Inc. (HABT) commenced on The Nasdaq Stock Market on November 20, 2014.

The Habit Restaurants, Inc., operator of The Habit Burger Grill, is a burger-centric fast casual restaurant concept that specializes in preparing fresh, made-to-order char-grilled burgers, sandwiches and salads. Fresh ingredients include USDA choice tri-tip steak, grilled chicken and line-caught sushi-grade albacore tuna cooked over an open flame. The first Habit opened in Santa Barbara, California in 1969, and has since grown to over 100 restaurants in 10 markets throughout California, Arizona, Utah and New Jersey.

"Since its first restaurant opening 45 years ago, The Habit continues to excel in the fast casual dining sector through its commitment to hospitality, quality and fresh, delicious ingredients," said Nelson Griggs, Executive Vice President, Listing Services, Nasdaq. "We congratulate The Habit Restaurants on its successful listing and we look forward to celebrating more milestones with them in the years to come."

The markets welcome HABT too, opening at $30 and spiking at one point as high as $41.99. Some commentary on the price action:

WSJ: Habit Restaurants Doubles In First Hours of Trading

According to IBD,

The Habit's public offering is expected to close Nov. 25. The company has given underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to 750,000 more shares of common stock at the IPO price.

While most early analysts focused on the sizzle, Chris Nichols at Yahoo Finance focused on the beef:

For every fast-casual restaurant that goes public, it's customary for the media to ask if it's "the next Chipotle." Regardless of whether it is or isn't -- and we can't know that for years -- we thought it wouldn't be surprising to see Habit's shares climb potentially to the mid-$20s soon after trading began. That was based on the valuations of seven other fast-casual operators now on the market, where earnings multiples (setting aside some of the more outlandish price-to-earnings ratios) generally average in the high 30s. But we also believed that guess might be conservative given the market's demand for growth stocks, and it turned out to be.

First-day "pop"

For all practical purposes, everyday investors have no chance to get any stock at an initial pricing (unless it declines, of course). Outside of a few investors who are able to, the pricing essentially serves only as a talking point from which to hype the first-day "pop." The realistic price where most individuals can start buying is higher, sometimes much higher. In the case of Habit, it was $12 a share, or 67%, above the pricing.

However, now the story will start to be about Habit the business, not Habit the IPO. Data from food industry research firm Technomic says that U.S. burger sellers had sales of $72 billion last year, about $2.4 billion, or 3.3%, of that occurring at better burger stores like Habit. Food trends being what they are, Habit is happy to promise a great deal of growth.

Sales indeed are soaring. Through the first nine months of this year, revenue was $126.3 million, an amount already above the sales of $120.4 million for the entire 12 months of 2013. Although that reflects the effect of additional stores that have opened, same-store sales are consistently positive, as well. It also doesn't hurt the brand that a reader survey in Consumer Reports named The Habit Burger Grill as having the best-tasting burger in America.

Among the potential caveats Nichols notes are the rising cost of beef, rising labor costs, and the need for diversifying its market outside its California core.

On Friday, the stock price began seeking its level, at noon down 7.5% to a still-robust $36.58.