On the 22nd, UK Prime Minister Starmer announced he will step down as leader of the ruling Labour Party and step down after a successor is appointed.
Analysts believe that Labour politician Andy Burnham's recent victory in the parliamentary by-election was the direct reason for Starmer's resignation. But whoever takes over Downing Street will face a series of challenges, including sluggish economic growth and intensified social division. In recent years, the frequent changes in the UK Prime Minister stem from successive governments failing to effectively address long-standing economic and social problems.
and all support was lost
In July 2024, Starmer led the Labour Party to victory in the House of Commons election, ending the Conservatives' 14-year streak in power before officially becoming Prime Minister. Starmer campaigned under the slogan "Change," promising to drive economic growth, improve public services, and control illegal immigration. However, within less than two years, he lost support within the party and became another British Prime Minister who failed to complete his term.
Starmer tried to strike a balance between strictly controlling public spending and responding to people's livelihood demands, but kept getting caught up in policy controversies. Measures such as restricting winter heating subsidies for the elderly and promoting welfare reforms for the disabled have sparked opposition from Labour MPs, labor unions, and other parties. The Starmer administration subsequently made adjustments and concessions, but was again criticized for lacking a clear direction. The Financial Times believes that the successive policy shifts and internal party chaos have damaged the Labour Party's image of steady governance.
In addition, Starmer appointed Peter Mandelson, who had close ties with the late American tycoon Epstein, as the British ambassador to the U.S., further undermining his credibility. In February this year, British police launched a criminal investigation into Mandelson. The UK's Guardian believes Starmer's political judgment has been questioned by this scandal. Subsequently, senior officials in the Prime Minister's Office resigned one after another, and Starmer's image of prudent personnel selection and good governance was also undermined.
Labour suffered a major setback in the UK local elections this May, with calls within the party for Starmer's resignation surging. However, at that time, there was no strong contender challenging Starmer's Labour Party leader and prime minister.
On the 19th of this month, then-Mayor of Greater Manchester Burnham won the Markfield by-election for the House of Commons, returning to the House of Commons and thus qualifying to compete for Labour Party leadership and ultimately for the Prime Minister position. This was seen by public opinion as the direct factor prompting Starmer's resignation.
A successor emerged
Burnham is currently seen as the most likely candidate to succeed Labour as leader and Prime Minister of the UK. United KingdomThe imperial carriage and the pavilionA survey released by the research firm in May showed that 47% of surveyed Labour Party members listed him as their first choice for party leader. Burnham served as Secretary of State for Culture and Secretary of State for Health under former Prime Minister Gordon Brown, ran twice for Labour Party leader, and has been Mayor of Greater Manchester since 2017.
Burnham advocated for the economy, immigration,Educationand industrial policy reforms, ending the "trickle-down economics" model and promoting reindustrialization in northern England. Public opinion believes that compared to Starmer's more cautious and technocratic governing style, Burnham is better at expressing his stance clearly and communicating directly with voters.
In recent years, the far-right Reform Party has gained influence in northern and central England, directly threatening Labour's traditional vote base. Burnham recently led Reform Party candidates by a wide margin in the Macfield by-election, further convincing his supporters that he is the best candidate to stop further expansion.
Stuart Wilkes-Higg, an election expert at the University of Liverpool, told reporters that Burnham's victory was not surprising, but such a large lead was significant and helped build strong political momentum.
However, analysts believe that even if Burnham becomes Prime Minister, he will face many challenges, such as where the huge funds needed for economic transformation will come from and whether related fundraising measures will comply with established fiscal rules.
A deep-rooted dilemma
If Burnham successfully takes office, he will become the seventh Prime Minister in the ten years since Brexit. Analysts believe that the revolving rotation of prime ministers appears to be due to Brexit disputes, partisan infighting, political scandals, and policy failures, but the fundamental reason is that successive governments have never effectively addressed the UK's long-standing economic and social problems.
According to data from the UK Office for National Statistics in June, the UK's GDP shrank by 0.1% month-on-month in April, marking the first monthly decline since August 2025. British media reported that, given sluggish economic growth, high public debt, and limited fiscal spending space, the UK government finds it difficult to drive growth through large-scale investment, nor can it fully meet the needs of healthcare andEducation, housing and social security needs.
The UK think tank Government Research Institute believes that due to external crises, population aging, and changes in the global economic landscape, the governance difficulty of the UK government has significantly increased over the past decade. Meanwhile, frequent changes in prime ministers and government officials further weaken policy continuity and government governance, creating a vicious cycle.
The political landscape in the UK has also been changing in recent years. The traditional 'two-party system' dominated by the Labour and Conservative parties has been challenged, the far-right Reform Party has expanded in England, and nationalist parties have emerged in Scotland and Wales.
"Over the past two years, both Labour and Conservative support have completely collapsed, and this is largely their own fault." Louis Bromfield, a researcher at Swansea University in the UK, told reporters that the Conservative Party has been dragged down by failures in economic policy during former Prime Minister Truss's administration and former Prime Minister Johnson's political scandals, while Labour has exposed a lack of leadership.
Yang Fang, a researcher at the Institute of European Studies, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that the contradictions between the UK's political system and party culture and the actual economic and social needs are deepening, leading to declining public governance efficiency and rising voter dissatisfaction. "Whether it's the Conservative or Labour Party, the ruling party often maintains its rule by replacing the Prime Minister when internal divisions widen and power struggles intensify. But in reality, this passive approach is insufficient to solve the UK's deep-rooted structural problems and will only lead to a cycle of inefficiency. ”For further insights into Southeast Asian financial markets and economic trends, visit: https://www.setkh.asia/
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