A cycle high signal was generated this week, confirming that the intermediate-term cycle high (ITCH) of the current intermediate-term cycle formed during the week ending September 4. We are 2 weeks into the decline phase of the intermediate-term cycle that began in March.
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The magnitude of the previous decline phase signals the likely transition to a bearish intermediate-term trend and favors additional losses.
S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart Analyses
The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index.
Technical Analysis
The index closed sharply lower this week, retreating further from previous highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.
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Cycle Analysis
A cycle high signal was generated this week, confirming that the intermediate-term cycle high (ITCH) formed during the week ending September 4. We are 2 weeks into the decline phase of the cycle following the intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) that occurred during the week ending March 27. The magnitude of the last decline phase signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional weakness. The window during which the next ITCL is likely to occur is now through October 9.
- Last ITCL: March 27, 2019
- Cycle Duration: 25 weeks
- Cycle Translation: Bearish
- Next ITCL Window: Now through October 9.
- Setup Status: No active setups.
- Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
- Signal Status: No active signals.
- Stop Level: None active.
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Intermediate-term Outlook
- Bullish Scenario: A rebound and weekly close above the recent long-term high at 3,510 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
- Bearish Scenario: A weekly close below current levels would predict a return to the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,169.
Both scenarios are equally likely.
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