Intermediate-Term Forecast for Saturday, October 19

We are 5 weeks into the second decline phase of the intermediate-term cycle that began in June.

A move up to new highs would reconfirm the current bullish trend and favor additional intermediate-term strength. Alternatively, an extended decline phase that returns to the last intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) at 2,729 on the S&P 500 index would suggest that intermediate-term direction is in question.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For short-term outlooks, see the latest short-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher this week, moving up toward previous highs of the uptrend from December. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 5 weeks into the second decline phase of the cycle following the intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) that occurred during the week ending May 31. A move up to new highs would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional intermediate-term strength. Alternatively, an extended decline phase that returns to the last ITCL at 2,729 would suggest that intermediate-term direction is in question. The window during which the next ITCL is likely to occur is now through November 29, with our best estimate being now through November 15.

• Last ITCL: May 31, 2019
• Cycle Duration: 20 weeks
• Cycle Translation: Bullish
• Next ITCL Window: Now through November 29; best estimate now through November 15.

• Setup Status: No active setups.
• Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
• Signal Status: No active signals.
• Stop Level: None active.

Intermediate-term Outlook

• Bullish Scenario: A weekly close above the previous high at 3,026 would reconfirm the uptrend from December and forecast additional gains.
• Bearish Scenario: A weekly close well below support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from December near 2,920 would predict a move down to the bottom of the Bollinger bands at 2,855.

Both scenarios are equally likely.