We are five weeks into the decline phase of the intermediate-term cycle that began in October. The latest intermediate-term low is imminent, and it could form at any time.
The magnitude of the current decline phase signals the likely transition to a bearish intermediate-term trend, and favors additional losses during the next cycle.
S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart Analyses
The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index.
Technical Analysis
The index closed sharply lower this week, moving down to a new low for the violent downtrend from February. Technical indicators are extremely bearish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the decline.
Cycle Analysis
We are five weeks into the decline phase of the cycle following the intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) that occurred during the week ending October 11. The magnitude of the current decline phase signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional weakness. The window during which the next ITCL is likely to occur is now through March 27.
- Last ITCL: October 11, 2019.
- Cycle Duration: 24 weeks.
- Cycle Translation: Bearish.
- Next ITCL Window: Now through March 27.
- Setup Status: No active setups.
- Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
- Signal Status: No active signals.
- Stop Level: None active.
Intermediate-term Outlook
- Bullish Scenario: A rebound and weekly close above the bottom of the Bollinger bands at 2,642 would predict a move up toward the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,129.
- Bearish Scenario: A weekly close below current levels would reconfirm the downtrend from late February and forecast additional losses.
Both scenarios are equally likely.
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