Intermediate-Term Forecast for Saturday, July 18

We are 17 weeks into the rally phase of the intermediate-term cycle that began in March.

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The magnitude of the last decline phase signals the likely transition to a bearish intermediate-term trend and favors additional losses during the next decline phase.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher this week, returning to previous highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

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Cycle Analysis

We are 17 weeks into the rally phase of the cycle following the intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) that occurred during the week ending March 27. The magnitude of the last decline phase signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional weakness. The window during which the next ITCL is likely to occur is now through September 11, with our best estimate being in the August 7 to September 4 range.

• Last ITCL: March 27, 2019
• Cycle Duration: 17 weeks
• Cycle Translation: Bearish
• Next ITCL Window: Now through September 11; best estimate in the August 7 to September 4 range.

• Setup Status: No active setups.
• Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
• Signal Status: No active signals.
• Stop Level: None active.

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Intermediate-term Outlook

• Bullish Scenario: A weekly close above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
• Bearish Scenario: A reversal and weekly close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2,901 would predict a return to the 200-week moving average at 2,710.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).