Initial Claims Continue Very Positive For The Economy, Near 50+ Year Lows

FRED has been very slow about updating either personal income and spending or Q1 GDP data graphs, so while I am waiting, let me update with the weekly jobless claims information. To cut to the chase, it continues to be positive and continues to forecast a further decline in the unemployment rate.

Initial claims rose 9.000 to 197,000, still among the very best readings in over 50 years, while the four-week average declined -5,000 to 202,750, also among the lowest in over 50 years. With the typical one-week delay, continuing claims declined -7,000 to 1.782 million:

As per my bullet point above, on a YoY% change basis, initial claims were down -10.0%, the four-week average down -8.5%, and total claims down -8.0%:

These are strongly positive short leading readings for the economy. Additionally, since jobless claims lead the unemployment rate, here is the latest update on that comparison:

Accordingly, I expect the unemployment rate to hold decline further in the next few months. We’ll see next week.