Today was my best day of the year, I’m pretty sure, even though the /ES was down all of 0.03% and the /YM was up hundreds of points. Here are a few thoughts I’ve got about the major indexes.
The Nasdaq Composite has been respecting the island reversal pattern it created in the middle of last week. If we can get this below about 27,000, the breakdown should accelerate.
The Nasdaq 100 had an identical island reversal pattern, and in this instance, we need to see it cut under about 30,500 to get heavier selling pressure.
The S&P 100 has been skimming along its ascending trendline since the war started. A failure here would be a big deal, but it hasn’t happened yet.
The semiconductor index, whose weakness has been exceptionally helpful to me lately, seems to be rolling over and is closed to flipping its PSAR.
The S&P 500 has a very interesting relationship with its lifetime high horizontal. My sense is that its inability to cleanly get above this line suggests it will roll lower very soon.
The Dow Utility Index may or may not have a little more strength left in it (Wednesday is probably the key day), but my XLU short is my biggest position.
And in case you are buying options, the premium being charged these days is just about zilch, because obviously there is absolutely zero geopolitical risk, and the U.S. elections are going to go totally smoothly and will have absolutely no effect whatsoever on any asset markets at all.
Honest.
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