If You Thought Construction Costs Were High, Wait For Mass Deportation

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Average hourly wages in construction, production and nonsupervisory workers, in 2023$ (CPI deflated):

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Figure 1: Average hourly earnings in construction, production and nonsupervisory workers, in 2023$ (blue, left log scale), and ratio of foreign born to total employed (tan, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER and author’s calculations.

Note that real wages in construction were essentially flat pre-family separation policy implementation, jumped thereafter, and accelerated growth after “zero tolerance” policy implementation.

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