How To Trade The Geopolitical Oil Squeeze

Photo by David Thielen on Unsplash

Crude Oil has surged a massive 50% since the beginning of 2026, perfectly hitting the macro breakout target I called back in January. But with geopolitical tensions boiling over and the "Gambler's Mind" taking hold of retail investors, the real question is: What happens next?

In this masterclass on technical analysis and trading psychology, Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway explains why the current Oil spike is setting up the ultimate contrarian short-trade opportunity. While the masses panic over headlines, the "Smart Money" is looking at the mid-term political landscape and preparing to fade the fear.

But you can't just jump in blindly. Gareth breaks down the critical importance of Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) and position sizing when stepping in front of a massive momentum move. He reveals his exact plan: where he will take a "starter position" short , and how he will manage the trade if the asset pushes higher.

In this video, Gareth covers:

The Anatomy of the Oil Breakout: A review of the January Wedge pattern and how institutional rotation fueled the 50% surge.

The Short Strategy ($77–$80): Why the geopolitical risk premium will eventually fade, and how the upcoming U.S. elections practically guarantee a drop in energy prices by November.

Natural Gas Targets: Following a quick 10% swing trade profit, Gareth reveals his next entry zone for Nat Gas.

Trading Psychology: The vital difference between the "Verified Trader's Mind" and the emotional "Gambler's Mind" when dealing with geopolitical headlines.

Stop trading on emotion. Get the probability-based insights you need to become the "House" in the financial casino.

Video Length: 00:12:15