How Glum? Bloomberg Consensus On Conference Board Confidence Index

Menzie Chinn
By Menzie Chinn of Econbrowser
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin •

May's Conference Board Confidence Index is expected to decline, though Bloomberg consensus remains less pessimistic than U. Michigan sentiment.

depositphotos_82541208-stock-photo-business-documents-on-office-table.jpg
Source: DepositPhotos

Deterioration, but not as much as implied by U.Michigan. May number out tomorrow.

Figure 1: Confidence Index (bold black), Bloomberg consensus (red square), predicted based on U.Michigan Sentiment, 25M01-26M04 (green), +/- 1 std error band (chartreuse lines). Orange dashed line at “Liberation Day”, green dashed line at US-Israel-Iran war. Source: Conference Board, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.

The equation used to predict Conference Board Confidence has an adjusted R2 of 0.48, SER of 3.22.

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