Hoot of the Day: Economists Expected Pending Home Sales to Rise

Pending home sales outlook from Bloomberg Econoday

Consensus Outlook

Bloomberg Econoday reports "After three straight sharp and unexpected declines, pending home sales in February are expected to rebound 0.9 percent."

A pending sale is one in which a contract was signed, but not yet closed. It usually takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale. 

Existing home sales are reported at closing but new home sales are recorded at signing. 

Mortgage Rates

30-year mortgage rates courtesy of Mortgage News Daily

Mystery

With mortgage rates soaring, it's a mystery why economists would expect sales to be rising. 

Sales fell 4.1% in a range of -3.0% to +1.5%. Not a single economist got this right.

Bonus Hoot

Bloomberg reports Fed’s Williams Says a Half-Point Hike on the Table If Needed.

“If it’s appropriate to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at a meeting, then I would think that we should do that. If it’s appropriate to do 25, then we should do that,” Williams said Friday during a virtual panel hosted by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and Bank for International Settlements. “I don’t see any reason not to do one or the other, it’s just we need to make the right decisions based on what we’re seeing in the economy.”

Wait a second, I mean to say "IF" they SAY it's appropriate.

It does not matter if if it's blazingly obvious what everyone thinks, including even them.

The question is: will they make excuses or not?

They certainly leave themselves that option.

— Mike "Mish" Shedlock (@MishGEA) March 25, 2022