With today's release of the June S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were up 0.12% month over month. The seasonally adjusted national index year-over-year change has hovered between 4.2% and 6.7% for the last two-plus years. Today's S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (nominal) reached another new high.
The column chart above illustrates the month-over-month change in the seasonally adjusted 20-city index, which tends to be the most closely watched of the Case-Shiller series. It was up 0.12% from the previous month. The non-seasonally adjusted index was up 6.3% year-over-year.
Investing.com had forecast a 0.2% MoM seasonally adjusted increase and 6.5% YoY non-seasonally adjusted for the 20-city series.
Here is an excerpt from the analysis in today's Standard & Poor's press release.
“Home prices continue to rise across the U.S.” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “However, even as home prices keep climbing, we are seeing signs that growth is easing in the housing market. Sales of both new and existing homes are roughly flat over the last six months amidst news stories of an increase in the number of homes for sale in some markets. Rising mortgage rates – 30 year fixed rate mortgages rose from 4% to 4.5% since January – and the rise in home prices are affecting housing affordability.
“The west still leads the rise in home prices with Las Vegas displacing Seattle as the market with the fastest price increase. Population and employment growth often drive homes prices. Las Vegas is among the fastest growing U.S. cities based on both employment and population, with its unemployment rate dropping below the national average in the last year. The northeast and mid-west are seeing smaller home price increases. Washington, Chicago and New York City showed the three slowest annual price gains among the 20 cities covered.” [Link to source]
The chart below is an overlay of the Case-Shiller 10- and 20-City Composite Indexes along with the national index since 1987, the first year that the 10-City Composite was tracked. Note that the 20-City, which is probably the most closely watched of the three, dates from 2000. We've used the seasonally adjusted data for this illustration.
The next chart shows the year-over-year Case-Shiller series, again using the seasonally adjusted data.
Here is the same year-over-year overlay adjusted for inflation with the Consumer Price Index owners' equivalent rent of residences.
For a long-term perspective on home prices, here is a look at the seasonally and inflation-adjusted Case-Shiller price index from 1953, the first year that monthly data is available. Because the CPI owners' equivalent rent of residences didn't start until 1983, we've used the broader seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index.
To get an even better idea of the trend in housing prices over long time periods, we compare the change in the seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Consumer Price Index since 1953.
For additional perspectives on residential real estate, here is the complete list of our monthly updates:
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