High Real Interest Rates Because Of Incipient Rapid Growth?

Former CEA Chair Miran suggests high real interest rates signal rapid growth, but empirical evidence remains thin.

Source: DepositPhotos

That’s former CEA Chair Miran’s argument in the FT. Is this assertion empirically validated? A graph from Hamilton, Harris, Hatzius and West (2016) suggests, maybe not:

Source: Hamilton et al. (2016) exhibit 3.3, as edited by Chinn.


If you see a clear positive association between growth and the real interest rate, then you have better eyes than I do.

The real rate-growth rate link is clear in a very simple, stylized New Keynesian model, as Hamilton et al. show:

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