We measured every bull cycle of gold stocks and found there have been eight distinct upcycles since 1975.
We also discovered something exciting: Only one was less than a double. (A second was 99.9%.)
Even more enticing is that the biggest one—a 601.5% advance in the early 2000s—occurred just after a prolonged bear market.
And our current bear market is longer than that one.
To get a sense for the potential upside, we applied the percentage gain from each of those upcycles to our recommended BIG GOLD picks.
We can’t show you our entire portfolio out of fairness to paying subscribers. But look what those gains would mean to GDX, the Gold Miners ETF (based on the June 1 price).
| Gold ETF | Current Share Price |
1976– 1980 |
1982– 1983 |
1986– 1987 |
1989– 1990 |
1993– 1994 |
2000– 2003 |
2005– 2008 |
2008– 2011 |
| 554.2% | 205.1% | 141.8% | 51.5% | 99.9% | 601.5% | 206.4% | 272.5% | ||
| GDX | $19.49 | $127.51 | $59.45 | $47.14 | $29.53 | $38.96 | $136.72 | $59.72 | $72.60 |
Keep two things in mind about this table:
- The percentage gain from each past bull market is calculated using an index. The stronger companies will perform better than a static ETF.
- It’s not unreasonable to think that the gains in the next bull market will be similar to some of the higher returns listed above. That’s because stocks will be rising from the depths of one of the more severe bear markets.
Here’s what the price for popular royalty company Royal Gold would look like if it matched past bull markets.
| Royalty Company |
Current Share Price |
1976– 1980 |
1982– 1983 |
1986– 1987 |
1989– 1990 |
1993– 1994 |
2000– 2003 |
2005– 2008 |
2008– 2011 |
| 554.2% | 205.1% | 141.8% | 51.5% | 99.9% | 601.5% | 206.4% | 272.5% | ||
| Royal Gold |
$64.23 | $420.21 | $195.93 | $155.34 | $97.30 | $128.38 | $450.56 | $196.79 | $239.26 |
You might think royalty stocks won’t show similar gains going forward. It’s true they’ve already performed well. However, it’s more likely they’ll be wildly popular than anything else. That’s partly because there are only a few of them in this industry.
Now take a look at the prices our top silver pick would hit.
| Silver Producer |
Current Share Price |
1976– 1980 |
1982– 1983 |
1986– 1987 |
1989– 1990 |
1993– 1994 |
2000– 2003 |
2005– 2008 |
2008– 2011 |
| 554.2% | 205.1% | 141.8% | 51.5% | 99.9% | 601.5% | 206.4% | 272.5% | ||
| Top BIG GOLD Silver Pick |
$3.71 | $24.27 | $11.32 | $8.97 | $5.62 | $7.42 | $26.02 | $11.37 | $13.82 |
If silver rises along with gold in the next bull market—something we think is extremely likely—this small niche market will absolutely soar.
No other sector is as depressed as the mining sector. A return to anything close to some of the stronger past bull markets will hand us tremendous gains.
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