Grains Report - Wednesday, October 28

WHEAT

General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower on reports of very beneficial rains in the southern and western Great Plains. Parts of southern Russia could see some relief from drought as a few showers are in the forecast. It is still a weather market and the planting weather is dry in many northern hemisphere areas, but the weather is starting to chip away at the drier areas. This is especially true in the US where the drought will become a thing of the past. Southern Russia could stay mostly dry away from the showers that are forecast to fall. Eastern sections of Ukraine should get a few showers. Kazakhstan should stay dry. Farmers in Russia and surrounding areas are not really selling much of the current crop due to fears about the production of the next crop. Less production is likely in Argentina due to drought, but the rains are coming and have been falling in recent days. Western Australia has also been very dry, but eastern Australia is in very good condition. The Midwest has had good rains after a dry period. Much of Europe is in good condition.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light snow. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 594, 572, and 560 December. Support is at 604, 600, and 587 December, with resistance at 629, 636, and 638 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 529 and 502 December. Support is at 540, 537, and 524 December, with resistance at 573, 579, and 582 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 558, 543, and 505 December.

Support is at 555, 548, and 540 December, and resistance is at 570, 579, and 582 December.

RICE

General Comments Rice was higher yesterday, with November leading the way due in part to the roll of positions from November to January or beyond and in part due to difficult logistics as the weather along the Louisiana coast is expected to go downhill rapidly due to the arrival of another hurricane. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. Export demand has been solid. The harvest is almost over in northern states with average to good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are done with the first crop harvest and are waiting for the second crop to mature. Producers had to endure Hurricane Delta in Louisiana, and some of the second crop Rice got hurt. Another hurricane is coming but is not expected to be as strong as Delta was. Misty weather in Arkansas has kept harvesters out of the fields for the last week or more.

Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers in the north and big rains and storms in the south from the hurricane. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1227, 1218, and 1210 November, with resistance at 1255, 1260, and 1265 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Oct 28
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG) and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.98 10.84 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.67 11.22 0.00
Brokens 10.77 —- —-

CORN AND OATS

General Comments Corn was lower as there was no export demand reported by USDA. China especially has been out of the market and the market wants those big sales. Farmers in the US are holding Corn for later sale and demand has been very good, especially for exports. Producers are unhappy with the price and the Soybeans are paying much better, so farmers are selling the Soybeans and holding the Corn. Harvest reports from the country suggest that the production of a good crop is likely. Demand is holding strong for exports, but domestic demand was cut back from previous estimates. Ethanol demand in particular has been less. Feed demand appears to be strong. The harvest has expanded into the Midwest with very good harvest conditions, but it is wet and cold now and the harvest progress will be slower.

Overnight News: USDA said that South Korea bought 207,000 tons of optional origin corn.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 427 December. Support is at 413, 410, and 405 December, and resistance is at 422, 425, and 426 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 310, 320, and 331 December. Support is at 304, 300, and 295 December, and resistance is at 310, 312, and 315 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower as no new demand has been reported by USDA. China especially has been absent from the market after buying a lot here. Reports indicated that the producer is selling Soybeans right off the combine or is delivering against previous contracts. The offer is drying up now as harvest nears completion. The remaining harvest will be slow this week due to wet and cool conditions in the Midwest. Better harvesting conditions are expected next week as it should turn drier and warmer. Chinese buying for the reserve is almost finished. Ideas are that individual crushers are still with positions to buy. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but Brazil has been hot and dry and parts of Argentina have also been dry and some of the early plantings has been delayed. That might keep the Chinese buying in the US for a little longer. Brazil is getting rains now, so all of the projected Soybeans area will get planted and a big crop from Brazil is still expected. It is a La Nina year and some parts of southern Brazil and Argentina could stay drier than normal, and that will be watched by the trade for the potential for yield loss.

Overnight News: USDA said that Egypt bought 110,000 tons of US Soybeans and that unknown destination bought 120,000 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1105 and 1173 November. Support is at 1080, 1071, and 1064 November, and resistance is at 1096, 1108, and 1120 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 375.00, 372.00, and 369.00 December, and resistance is at 392.00, 394.00, and 397.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3630 and 3720 December. Support is at 3400, 3380, and 3300 December, with resistance at 3500, 3530, and 3560 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on follow through speculative long liquidation. Chart trends are up. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest remains hard and the lack of labor has been a big problem. At least some of the plantation owners have asked for more migrant workers to cover the lack of workers that can be sourced locally. Canola was lower on speculative long liquidation. Trends are down for the short term in Canola. Canola farmers are selling due to harvest pressure, but industry is buying. The harvest pressure is less now with most farmers about done with the harvest. Supplies are good in commercial hands right now. The yields are called strong this year.

Overnight News:/

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 530.00 and 518.00 November. Support is at 534.00, 529.00, and 527.00 November, with resistance at 543.00, 552.00, and 554.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3180 January. Support is at 2980, 2940, and 2860 January, with resistance at 3080, 3120, and 3150 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October +87 Dec +150 Dec +68 Dec +95 Nov +15 Dec N/A
November +81 Dec +73 Dec +90 Nov
December +78 Dec +80 Dec +89 Jan

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 27
WINNIPEG, Oct. 27 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 510.90 -32.30 Nov 2020 dn 3.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 564.00 20.00 Nov 2020 dn 3.90
Basis: Vancouver 576.00 32.00 Nov 20200 dn 3.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 817.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 805.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 747.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 697.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 820.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 807.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 750.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 700.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 810.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 715.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3,280.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 227.00 +06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.152)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 292,588 lots, or 14.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 4,876 4,940 4,841 4,940 4,837 4,905 68 247 443
Jan-21 4,877 4,980 4,862 4,974 4,851 4,914 63 271,148 137,080
Mar-21 4,888 4,979 4,875 4,975 4,866 4,913 47 3,067 3,394
May-21 4,928 5,005 4,909 5,001 4,917 4,948 31 16,641 16,167
Jul-21 4,940 5,017 4,925 5,014 4,928 4,964 36 1,335 2,306
Sep-21 4,900 4,974 4,888 4,970 4,901 4,928 27 150 509
Corn
Turnover: 1,072,075 lots, or 27.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 2,550 2,565 2,545 2,560 2,547 2,551 4 3,487 43,748
Jan-21 2,592 2,609 2,582 2,603 2,587 2,595 8 760,490 1,323,016
Mar-21 2,568 2,593 2,568 2,585 2,576 2,580 4 40,387 26,016
May-21 2,586 2,599 2,578 2,593 2,583 2,588 5 168,499 586,228
Jul-21 2,589 2,602 2,586 2,597 2,589 2,593 4 82,043 101,322
Sep-21 2,585 2,604 2,585 2,597 2,589 2,595 6 17,169 90,386
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,664,046 lots, or 52.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 3,188 3,204 3,159 3,182 3,194 3,176 -18 1,688 6,211
Dec-20 3,264 3,275 3,223 3,244 3,262 3,252 -10 28,691 3,553
Jan-21 3,247 3,266 3,215 3,248 3,251 3,244 -7 997,650 1,244,597
Mar-21 3,186 3,194 3,151 3,178 3,189 3,174 -15 16,800 35,410
May-21 3,095 3,101 3,052 3,084 3,094 3,079 -15 420,898 1,165,326
Jul-21 3,034 3,045 3,003 3,032 3,033 3,031 -2 124,052 29,556
Aug-21 3,086 3,094 3,054 3,083 3,091 3,079 -12 4,613 11,401
Sep-21 3,099 3,106 3,066 3,097 3,103 3,090 -13 69,654 184,803
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,933,773 lots, or 12.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 6,352 6,542 6,352 6,512 6,470 6,482 12 131 42
Dec-20 6,398 6,466 6,316 6,432 6,398 6,408 10 112,535 3,048
Jan-21 6,256 6,346 6,194 6,302 6,256 6,264 8 1,166,701 384,228
Feb-21 6,196 6,286 6,138 6,242 6,196 6,210 14 424,387 10,363
Mar-21 6,142 6,214 6,048 6,146 6,122 6,106 -16 40,372 3,733
Apr-21 6,036 6,094 5,970 6,038 6,034 6,038 4 126,054 472
May-21 5,926 5,998 5,852 5,946 5,940 5,922 -18 62,084 133,614
Jun-21 – – – 5,878 5,878 5,878 0 0 11
Jul-21 5,820 5,820 5,782 5,782 5,818 5,806 -12 9 6
Aug-21 – – – 5,786 5,786 5,786 0 0 2
Sep-21 5,612 5,666 5,558 5,638 5,638 5,610 -28 1,485 5,931
Oct-21 5,606 5,616 5,574 5,600 5,610 5,608 -2 15 18
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,067,763 lots, or 76.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 7,374 7,406 7,324 7,360 7,374 7,382 8 474 1,288
Dec-20 7,376 7,416 7,314 7,348 7,384 7,358 -26 3,887 1,553
Jan-21 7,276 7,324 7,194 7,260 7,296 7,260 -36 817,929 536,775
Mar-21 7,230 7,262 7,134 7,192 7,230 7,200 -30 8,474 7,201
May-21 6,982 7,008 6,886 6,944 6,998 6,948 -50 100,159 291,266
Jul-21 6,870 6,898 6,776 6,828 6,892 6,818 -74 78,553 7,924
Aug-21 6,836 6,844 6,736 6,788 6,856 6,770 -86 55,353 348
Sep-21 6,784 6,816 6,692 6,754 6,810 6,748 -62 2,934 17,197
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.