Grains Report - Tuesday, Sept. 8

WHEAT

General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher last week and Chicago Winter Wheat markets made new highs for the move on the weekly charts before finding much selling interest. Minneapolis Spring Wheat seems to have a lot of selling near the 530 September level and this has kept the futures are in a sideways to an uptrend. The market is still reacting to which way Wheat prices are going here and overseas. Black Sea prices have been firming in the last couple of weeks. The Russian farmer is not selling to exporters as they can get better prices internally. Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions in both the US and Canada. However, a frost is forecast for these areas next week and some light damage is possible to some crops. Harvest has expanded and yield reports are solid in the northern Plains. It is still dry in France and Russia and now Spring Wheat areas of Russia are being affected. Russian Winter Wheat yields have improved over time as harvesters move into areas that had better-growing conditions. Australia remains in good condition and is getting beneficial rains. About half of the Argentine Wheat belt is too dry and wire reports indicate that production in the worst areas could be 50% of normal.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 547, 543, and 542 December, with resistance at 560, 570, and 571 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 469, 465, and 463 December, with resistance at 482, 490, and 495 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 535, 533, and 530 December, and resistance is at 545, 549, and 554 December.

RICE

General Comments: Rice was a little higher again last week as Hurricane Laura came onshore. The damage from the storm was intense near the Gulf Coast but most if not all of the Rice had already been harvested. Some damage to port facilities in Port Charles was noted and the cleanup there will take some time. Some silos full of Rice were also damaged. The storm diminished quickly and little damage was reported in Mississippi, Arkansas, of Missouri. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The area is larger and the growing conditions are mostly good. The crops are called in good condition in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Texas and southern Louisiana field yield reports are strong. Quality is called average to above average. Brazil is reported to have bought a couple of cargoes of Rice late last week as it has run short. The fact that Brazil is buying from the US means that competition for sales in the Western Hemisphere will be significantly less this year and should support somewhat higher prices for US Rice and futures markets.

Overnight News: The Delta should get big rains from Laura and Marco. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1231, 1220, and 1204 November, with resistance at 1250, 1260, and 1267 November.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn was little changed last week. The hot and dry conditions are in Iowa and northern Illinois right now, but some sections of Iowa will get some beneficial rains this week and started raining on Sunday. The rains were beneficial and more are coming. Demand has also been strong with a lot of Chinese buying. China has bought a lot of US Corn lately to fulfill short domestic production. China has also been offering Corn out of state reserves to try to keep the market supplied and has apparently succeeded as demand for the domestic Corn has tailed off in the latest round of offers. The US harvest is getting ready to start and there will be less productive than had been estimated earlier by the trade. The production should still be enough to add to ending stocks even with the strong Chinese demand. The current higher prices might not last much longer and a move back down into harvest lows is probable.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 354, 348, and 345 December, and resistance is at 360, 362, and 367 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 269 and 263 December. Support is at 268, 261, and 260 December, and resistance is at 274, 279, and 282 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher, but Soybean Oil was lower. Soybeans and Soybean Meal made new highs for the move as did Soybean Oil before the market turned lower. Soybeans are still in a weather market. It was hot and dry in much of the Midwest last week and the Soybeans suffered. Rains and cooler temperatures were seen in the Midwest starting on Sunday and should continue through the balance of this week. The change in the weather pattern should help the Soybeans on their way to maturity. The production totals are expected to be big, although not as large as the original forecasts made by private analysts. The weather will start to lose its bullish influence on prices in the next few weeks and the harvesters get ready to roll. Demand from China has held strong but might be about to end. China is now booking Soybeans into dates that are close to the first shipping dates from Brazil and will no doubt start to look to the south for additional supplies. Prices for new crop Soybeans are cheaper in Brazil.

Overnight News: USDA said that 400,000 tons of US soybeans were sold to China and another 264,000 tons were received to China. Unknown destinations bought 191,699 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 959, 957, and 942 November, and resistance is at 976, 980, and 986 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 3215.00 and 322.00 October. Support is at 308.00, 306.00, and 302.00 October, and resistance is at 312.00, 315.00, and 318.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3260, 3200, and 3180 October, with resistance at 3390, 3430, and 3460 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher last week on the back of rallies in Chicago and Dalian Soybean Oil. It was lower on Monday but higher today. Demand reports from the private surveyors were down and this is becoming a bigger problem for higher prices. Production ideas are down as workers for the plantations are harder to find, but the market appears to have priced itself out of the demand base. Flooding and a lack of workers for the plantations have been the reasons to see less production in Malaysia. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for biofuels. Soybean Oil was lower and Canola was higher. Canola closed higher despite good growing conditions in Canada and the stronger Canadian Dollar. The strength in the Canadian Dollar is more about weakness in the US Dollar than anything going on in Canada. Crop conditions are mostly good and farmers have been selling old-crop supplies. The weather has been warm and most areas have seen rain. It will turn colder this week and some of the Prairie provinces will see a frost or light freeze. The cold air even is not expected to hurt Canola all that much.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 511.00 and 521.00 November. Support is at 501.00, 494.00, and 491.00 November, with resistance at 508.00, 511.00, and 514.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2950 and 3140 November. Support is at 2810, 2760, and 2700 November, with resistance at 2900, 2920, and 2940 November.