Grains Report - Tuesday, Sept. 15

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were a little higher and Minneapolis Spring Wheat closed a little lower. Winter Wheat futures rallied with firm world prices. Prices in Russia in particular have been stronger in the past couple of weeks. Larger world ending stocks estimates from USDA reflect larger production estimates in Australia and unchanged production estimates in Russia. Less production is likely in Europe and Argentina due to drought. About half of Argentine growing areas are affected as was much of France. The next crop is being planted now in the northern parts of the world. Conditions are improved in the US after some rains fell in the Great Plains. The Midwest has had god rains although some areas in the southern Midwest have not gotten much rain recently. It is also too dry for planting in parts of Ukraine and southern Russia. There is still plenty of time for rains to start planting in the latter two areas as well as in the US Winter Wheat areas.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 530, 509, and 504 December. Support is at 539, 527, and 516 December, with resistance at 550, 557, and 560 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 467, 465, and 463 December, with resistance at 480, 485, and 490 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 505 December. Support is at 525, 519, and 515 December, and resistance is at 535, 539, and 544 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower as USDA even as Hurricane Sally began to bear down on the Gulf Coast. It is expected to come onshore near the Mississippi-Louisiana state line and could bring excessive rainfall to crops in Mississippi. The rest of the growing areas should be spared any real dangerous weather, Reports indicate that export and domestic demand has not been real strong to start out the new crop year. Exporters and domestic mills are thought to be holding back on purchases for as long as possible due to the current relatively high prices.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1191 November. Support is at 1204, 1197, and 1188 November, with resistance at 1220, 1231, and 1237 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was slightly higher and followed the other markets. Corn harvest has started in the south but there are no yield reports yet. The market acts as if all of the bullish news is in the market already, but there are still chances for prices to move higher over time. Chinese buying will need to be watched. Both China and USDA put Chinese imports at 7.0 million tons for the crop year but many in the trade feel this is too low. China has seen weather damage to a large potion of the crop areas this year. Damage came earlier in the year to southern growing areas and is happening now in northeast growing areas due to typhoons tht have hit the region. The US Midwest weather is quiet this week and harvesting will be starting soon. The harvest weather should be good but there was damage earlier to the crops from drought and the Derecho winds in Iowa and northern Illinois.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 120,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 374 December. Support is at 364, 363, and 359 December, and resistance is at 371, 374, and 377 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 269, 265, and 262 December, and resistance is at 274, 279, and 282 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher while Soybean Meal closed lower. Soybean Oil was supported by strength in world vegetable oils prices and news that the EPA will not give any more wavers to refiners of petroleum products so that they would need to incorporate more ethanol and bio fuels in the blends. Soybean Meal prices were hurt on ideas that more Soybean Oil production would create more Soybean Meal as well. Soybeans were supported by reports and ideas of strong demand. Much of the demand until now has been from China. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but USDA suggests that China could continue to buy here a little longer than expected. World ending stocks estimates were neutral when compared to trade expectations but were lower than last month. That is due mostly to the lower US production estimates.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 982, 967, and 959 November, and resistance is at 1009, 1012, and 1024 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 322.00 October. Support is at 315.00, 308.00, and 306.00 October, and resistance is at 321.00, 324.00, and 326.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3480, 3510, and 3650 October. Support is at 3390, 3320, and 3260 October, with resistance at 3460, 3490, and 3520 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on strength in outside markets and in a bigger than expected jump in the export pace. Production ideas are turning seasonally higher as trees enter a peak production period over the next few months. Most importers seem to have enough stocks on hand and the Coronavirus pandemic is keeping overall demand on the lighter side. Canola was higher. Canola closed higher on reports of freezing temperatures last week in the Canadian Prairies. The freeze extended into parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota as well. It is possible that a significant part of the Canola crop got hurt during the freeze event. Higher futures in Chicago also supported the market. Farmers there have withdrawn from the market and speculators are buying.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 745,565 tons, from 664,392 tons last month. AmSpec said that exports are now 780,305 tons, from 694,292 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 524.00, 531.00, and 536.00 November. Support is at 515.00, 512.00, and 505.00 November, with resistance at 524.00, 527.00, and 530.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2950 and 3140 November. Support is at 2820, 2790, and 2760 November, with resistance at 2920, 2940, and 2970 November.