Grains Report - Monday, March 15

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets were lower and were led lower by the HRW market. The weekly charts show down trends in HRW and SRW. Minneapolis trends are mixed. Demand was a problem once again as the weekly export sales report last week showed poor sales. Ideas are that rain that is falling in the Great Plains will help injured Winter Wheat. The threat of Winterkill production losses in the western Great Plains now appears to be part of the price. Temperatures dropped below 0F in many areas and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop. The actual damage will take some time to see under warmer temperatures and it might take until harvest to see the full effects of the recent extreme cold. USDA issued its latest WASDE estimates early last week and made no important changes to domestic or world estimates.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 644 and 632 May. Support is at 637, 632, and 626 May, with resistance at 658, 663, and 669 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 589 and 563 May. Support is at 600, 592, and 579 May, with resistance at 620, 623, and 628 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 629, 620, and 605 May, and resistance is at 644, 652, and 659 May.

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RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower once again on what appeared to be light volume speculative selling. Trading was very quiet for the day and the week. Futures are searching for news to ignite another rally or to prompt further selling. The cash market has not felt any increased export demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Exports were moderate last week. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to firm last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1286, 1270, and 1252 May. Support is at 1292, 1290, and 1243 May, with resistance at 1317, 1321, and 1325 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower last week in part in response to the disappointing WASDE estimates and Oats were a little lower after testing weekly chart highs. USDA made no changes in its WASDE Corn estimates early in the week. Traders had expected increased demand and less ending stocks. The weekly export sales report from USDA last week showed improved sales but did not include much in the way of new sales to China. Reports of Asian Swine Fever in China hurt Corn buying and brought buying into hogs. Chinese demand had been strong until recently and it looks like they need the Corn either way. Prices inside China for Corn remain extremely high. It is still raining in central and parts of northern Brazil, but farmers were still able to harvest some of the Soybeans area and plant some of the Winter Corn around the precipitation. The Winter Corn crop is on a very slow pace to be planted and progress is well behind normal. Argentina is now drier and Corn in Argentina could be stressed. Beneficial rains are forecast for later this week. Southern Brazil got dry conditions but is also expecting beneficial rains later this week. The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year. The second crop of Corn planting is also being delayed and yield estimates for South American Corn have been reduced.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 531, 529, and 523 May, and resistance is at 546, 556, and 558 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 375, 372, and 368 May, and resistance is at 382, 387, and 390 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed a little lower. Weekly chart trends are still sideways for Soybeans but are down in Soybean Meal. The monthly USDA WASDE estimates were considered disappointing by the trade as no changes were made for demand or ending stocks for the US. World data showed a one million ton production increase for Brazil on higher planted and harvested area and a half million ton production decrease for Argentina due to drought and reduced yields. Selling came on ideas that the impending Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans. Demand was improved last week in the weekly export data and the US has now sold 99% of its target amount of Soybeans for the marketing year. The Brazil harvest has been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well. Rains are coming to an end in some areas so harvest activities have increased but the harvest remains very slow overall. China has been buying for this year and next year here but now mostly in South America. US internal demand has also been strong as seen in the crush data. The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1401, 1378, and 1368 May, and resistance is at 1432, 1446, and 1460 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 396.00 and 368.00 May. Support is at 395.00, 385.00, and 377.00 May, and resistance is at 414.00, 418.00, and 425.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 5360, 5220, and 5090 May, with resistance at 5600, 5660, and 5720 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher again last week on ideas of tight supplies. It was higher again overnight on news that Saudi Arabia had agreed to buy 200,000 tons of Malaysian Palm Oil. Ending stocks were down to 1.3 million tons due to a five year low in production for the month. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Wet weather has caused even more delays. The weather is improved and trees seasonally increase production about now. Canola closed higher along with Chicago and on strong demand ideas. Canola still got talk of tight supplies due to reduced offers from farmers and reduced production earlier in the year. Worries about South American production coming to market were negative. Soyb3ean Oil was higher last week despite increased supplies in the WASDE estimates. Demand currently is considered strong and should increase over time as demand for bio fuels will improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 786.00, 769.00, and 748.00 May, with resistance at 808.00, 814.00, and 820.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4250 May. Support is at 3060, 3940, and 3830 May, with resistance at 4090, 4250, and 4310 May.