Grains Report - Friday, August 28

Winter Wheat markets were sharply higher as Hurricane Laura pushed onshore in Texas and Louisiana and could bring potentially heavy rains into the MidSouth. There is potential for a little SRW to be lost but most of the harvest should be complete.

Europe remains high priced due to a drought in France, but improving yield reports in Russia have hurt prices in the Black Sea. Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions in both the US and Canada. Yield reports from the central and southern Great Plains have been variable, but generally a little better than expected. Soft Red Winter yields are high. Russian Winter Wheat yields have improved over time as harvesters move into areas that had better growing conditions, but Spring Wheat yields are expected to be variable due to declining crop conditions in those growing areas. Australia remains in good condition. About half of the Argentine Wheat belt is still too dry.

Overnight News:

The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:

Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 565 September. Support is at 533, 524, and 517 September, with resistance at 544, 547, and 565 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 467 and 604 September. Support is at 451, 439, and 423 September, with resistance at 464, 468, and 472 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 520, 515, and 510 September, and resistance is at 530, 538, and 543 September.

RICE

Rice was higher as Hurricane Laura made its way through the Louisiana and Texas coasts and farther into Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. Most areas in Texas and Louisiana have been harvested and harvest is just starting in the other areas. However, the worst of the storm appears to have missed Rice production areas. Many places got some big rains but those were manageable and the winds have dropped off to 30 to 40 mph as the storm has moved inland. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The area is larger and the growing conditions are mostly good. The crops are called in good condition in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri and harvesting is about to start in those states. Texas and southern Louisiana field yield reports are strong. Quality is called average to above average. Export demand for the new crop Rice has been slow to develop as buyers wait for lower prices. Domestic demand has also been less. It looks like many buyers bought and hoarded Rice during the first pandemic scare and are now full of supplies.

Overnight News:

The Delta should get big rains from Laura and Marco. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1204, 1190, and 1180 September, with resistance at 1232, 1245, and 1248 September.

CORN AND OATS

Corn was higher as forecasts call for hot and dry conditions this week but dry and cooler temperatures starting this weekend. The crops really need some water and there is not much if any water coming until this weekend at the earliest and now maybe not even then. The corn is firing due to the conditions and some of the corn is shutting down prematurely. Wetter and cooler weather is expected this weekend but many observers say that the rains will be too late to help some of the crops. Most of the rains will be to the south and east, but western areas should get some storms and showers in the region

Unknown destinations bought 324,032 tons of US Corn.

Chart Analysis:

Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 354 September. Support is at 341 335, and 332 September, and resistance is at 346, 351, and 355 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 253 September. Support is at 260, 252, and 249 September, and resistance is at 272, 278, and 280 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

Soybeans were higher on the bad Midwest weather. China has been a very strong buyer of US new crop Soybeans and the US now has record sales on the books. Brazil prices are higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US for additional supplies. The US weather is considered bad for Soybeans with hot and dry conditions this week. There are reports of small beans in pods and some pods being aborted already. The hot and dry conditions this week will only add to stress in Soybeans. Cooler and but still dry weather is forecast for this weekend and into next week and the crops really need some rain.

Chart Analysis:

Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 950 September. Support is at 934, 920, and 814 September, and resistance is at 950, 962, and 967 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 298.00 and 303.00 September. Support is at 293.00, 290.00, and 287.00 September, and resistance is at 299.00, 301.00, and 302.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 3290, 3200, and 3190 September, with resistance at 3360, 3420, and 3510 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

Palm Oil was higher along with Chicago and Dalian Soybean Oil. Export demand for Malaysian Palm Oil is down about 16% this month. Canola closed higher on Chicago Soybean Oil price action. Crop conditions are mostly good and farmers have been selling old crop supplies. The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks and most areas have seen rain.

Chart Analysis:

Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 495.00, 491.00, and 490.00 November, with resistance at 502.00, 505.00, and 508.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2650, 2570, and 2530 November, with resistance at 2700, 2760, and 2790 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast:

Mostly dry in all areas today, then showers and storms mostly in the south and east over the weekend. Temperatures should average above normal this week and below normal this weekend

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August +68 Sep +135 Sep +55 Sep +80 Nov N/A N/A
September +60 Sep +65 Sep +70 Nov
October +54 Dec +65 Dec +67 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 27
WINNIPEG, Aug. 27 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 458.60 -35.00 Nov 2020 up 2.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 509.20 12.00 Nov 2020 up 3.60
Basis: Vancouver 522.60 23.00 Nov 2020 up 3.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 720.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 685.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 675.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 660.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 722.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 687.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 677.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 662.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 712.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 640.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 2,860.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 184.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1630)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 205,257 lots, or 9.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 4,646 4,670 4,641 4,653 4,652 4,651 -1 2,848 7,081
Nov-20 4,384 4,388 4,331 4,372 4,382 4,360 -22 11,684 3,934
Jan-21 4,386 4,412 4,366 4,398 4,409 4,385 -24 187,586 127,543
Mar-21 4,425 4,440 4,406 4,421 4,431 4,421 -10 1,261 2,869
May-21 4,439 4,459 4,421 4,445 4,459 4,436 -23 864 4,421
Jul-21 4,428 4,454 4,415 4,442 4,447 4,434 -13 1,014 714
Corn
Turnover: 721,455 lots, or 16.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,223 2,226 2,209 2,218 2,235 2,218 -17 5,496 20,353
Nov-20 2,239 2,259 2,233 2,245 2,257 2,247 -10 96,254 55,991
Jan-21 2,257 2,272 2,252 2,267 2,278 2,262 -16 519,963 1,217,732
Mar-21 2,277 2,297 2,277 2,291 2,304 2,289 -15 13,155 14,309
May-21 2,300 2,309 2,290 2,302 2,313 2,299 -14 80,446 358,813
Jul-21 2,321 2,334 2,317 2,326 2,341 2,326 -15 6,141 44,081
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,314,986 lots, or 38.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,886 2,910 2,886 2,893 2,874 2,897 23 21,468 23,176
Nov-20 2,914 2,936 2,911 2,914 2,897 2,923 26 60,399 79,176
Dec-20 2,918 2,945 2,918 2,925 2,910 2,932 22 39,478 5,600
Jan-21 2,942 2,955 2,932 2,937 2,922 2,944 22 983,660 1,406,192
Mar-21 2,815 2,838 2,815 2,826 2,806 2,827 21 6,339 11,665
May-21 2,781 2,800 2,778 2,787 2,768 2,788 20 203,545 716,019
Jul-21 2,794 2,816 2,794 2,804 2,786 2,808 22 63 635
Aug-21 2,864 2,864 2,816 2,831 2,803 2,831 28 34 93
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,075,737 lots, or 61.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 5,928 6,072 5,908 6,034 5,864 5,986 122 13,773 8,878
Oct-20 5,874 5,962 5,828 5,930 5,786 5,920 134 47,309 8,201
Nov-20 5,760 5,886 5,756 5,842 5,678 5,834 156 43,801 6,561
Dec-20 5,704 5,818 5,688 5,780 5,632 5,758 126 10,241 2,029
Jan-21 5,670 5,808 5,664 5,762 5,610 5,736 126 941,470 398,686
Feb-21 5,710 5,710 5,634 5,636 5,618 5,656 38 7 118
Mar-21 5,706 5,706 5,706 5,706 5,508 5,706 198 2 19
Apr-21 – – – 5,664 5,558 5,664 106 0 152
May-21 5,600 5,718 5,586 5,676 5,546 5,656 110 19,134 39,419
Jun-21 – – – 5,670 5,620 5,670 50 0 2
Jul-21 – – – 5,538 5,520 5,538 18 0 5
Aug-21 – – – 5,580 5,580 5,580 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 880,617 lots, or 58.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 6,508 6,658 6,500 6,632 6,456 6,588 132 6,734 13,710
Nov-20 6,536 6,678 6,536 6,656 6,502 6,624 122 52,600 11,983
Dec-20 6,542 6,666 6,536 6,636 6,492 6,610 118 12,475 2,697
Jan-21 6,578 6,684 6,560 6,648 6,510 6,626 116 762,311 585,973
Mar-21 6,490 6,624 6,490 6,582 6,456 6,564 108 12,893 733
May-21 6,422 6,536 6,412 6,508 6,380 6,478 98 33,604 123,760
Jul-21 – – – 6,378 6,336 6,378 42 0 4
Aug-21 – – – 6,456 6,326 6,456 130 0 1
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.