Goods Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Swells to Second Worst in History

The goods balance of trade is $-97.8 billion in November according to Census Bureau Advance Estimates.

The advance trade estimates are for goods only. The net deficit includes services.  

Key Points

• The international trade deficit was $97.8 billion in November, up $14.6 billion from $83.2 billion in October. 
• Exports of goods for November were $154.7 billion, $3.3 billion less than October exports. 
• Imports of goods for November were $252.4 billion, $11.3 billion more than October imports.

The Bloomberg Econoday economic consensus was $-86.0 billion in a range of$-88.7 billion to $-85.5 billion. 

That's a miss by 13.7%.

Touch and Go for a New Net Record

The previous net record was $-81.44 billion. If the advance number holds and there are no back revisions, then we can calculate what the services number needs to be for a new record.

97.778 - 81.44 = 16.338 

If the services surplus is less than $16.338 billion then we will have a new net record trade deficit. 

Place your bets. This one is touch and go.