Gold (XAU/USD) surrenders modest Asian session gains to a nearly two-week top and currently trades near the lower end of its daily range, below the $4,700 mark. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he expects the US to wrap up its military operation against Iran within two to three weeks and added that Tehran does not have to make a deal for him to end the war. The optimism, in turn, weighed on the US Dollar's (USD) global reserve currency status and provided an intraday lift to the commodity.
Meanwhile, the US deploys 3,500 Marines to the Middle East to reinforce approximately 50,000 US troops already stationed across the region. This marks the largest American military buildup in two decades. Moreover, reports suggest that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is pushing for military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, fueling worries about a broader regional conflict and acting as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices. This, in turn, keeps inflation concerns and Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets in play, which helps limit deeper USD losses and caps any further appreciation for the non-yielding Gold.
Trump will give an address to the nation on Wednesday night at 9 PM EDT (01:00 GMT on Thursday) to update the public on the Iran war. This, along with important US macro releases scheduled at the beginning of a new month, should provide some meaningful impetus to the XAU/USD pair. The US economic docket features the ADP report on private sector employment, the monthly Retail Sales, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Apart from this, speeches by influential FOMC members will play a key role in driving the USD demand and producing short-term trading opportunities around the Gold price.
The market attention will then shift to the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due on Friday. However, the focus will remain glued to geopolitical developments, which should continue to infuse volatility into the financial markets and influence the Gold price dynamics.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold seems poised to appreciate further; 100-SMA breakpoint holds the key for bulls
Against the backdrop of last week's solid rebound from a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the overnight breakout through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March downfall and the 100-day SMA favors the XAU/USD bulls.
The subsequent move up, however, stalls ahead of the 50% retracement level. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stays below its signal line and in negative territory, with the histogram extended to the downside, which reinforces prevailing selling pressure. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 46 after recovering from oversold territory, hinting that bearish momentum is easing but not yet reversing.
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the $4,745-$4,750 area (50% retracement level) before positioning for additional gains. In the meantime, the 38.2% retracement at $4,590.05 emerges as initial support ahead of the $4,500 psychological mark and the $4,400 round figure that aligns with the 23.6% Fibo. retracement. A convincing break below the latter would deepen the corrective phase and expose the 200-day SMA pivotal support near $4,136.72.
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