Gold Miners Rebound From Key Support; Wave 5 Underway?

Back on July 9, we discussed the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) as it was approaching a major support zone that could potentially mark the end of its ongoing wave 4 correction. At the time, GDX was trading near the 70–68 area, where several important technical levels were converging, including the 2021 all-time highs, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and the upper line of the base channel. CHECK IT HERE

The idea was that this combination of support could provide a favorable area for buyers to step back in and potentially trigger the next impulsive advance into wave 5. We also noted that the daily structure could still be completing a wedge within wave (C), meaning that some caution was warranted until the market provided stronger evidence of a bullish reversal.

The projected support is now holding

Fast forward to the current market structure, and GDX has strongly bounced from the projected support zone, which is an encouraging development for the bullish Elliott Wave scenario.

This rebound suggests that the wave 4 correction may already be complete, with GDX potentially now advancing within wave 5. If this interpretation is correct, the recent weakness was not the beginning of a larger bearish trend, but rather a corrective phase within the broader bullish structure.

The strength of the reaction from support is particularly important. When price respects a previously identified support cluster and then begins to accelerate higher, it can provide an early indication that the corrective structure has run its course.

Watching the 102 level

Despite the encouraging rebound, we still want to see additional confirmation before considering the bullish wave 5 scenario fully validated.

The key level to watch now is 102. A sustained move back above this level would provide stronger confirmation that the bullish structure is developing as anticipated and that GDX could be entering a larger impulsive advance.

Until that happens, however, short-term pullbacks should not be ruled out. Even if wave 5 is underway, price can still experience corrective retracements along the way, particularly after such a strong bounce from support.

Overall, the July 9 setup is developing favorably. GDX has reacted strongly from the projected 70–68 support zone, suggesting that wave 4 may be complete and that wave 5 could now be in progress. The next major confirmation comes with a sustained break above 102, while short-term pullbacks should be viewed in the context of the broader bullish structure rather than automatically interpreted as a trend reversal.