Gold Just Passed The Dollar As The World's Reserve - $13,600 Coming Sooner Than You Think!

Gareth Soloway breaks down gold from every angle: three major stories that barely made the news, the cycle math behind his long-term price target, and a second, completely independent model that lands on the same number.

Gold has broken through the descending trend line that capped it since the all-time high, which means the first step of the next bull run has started. A retrace back to the scene of the crime is still on the table, and a lot of that comes down to interest rates. But Gareth argues the bigger story is what has been happening underneath the chart.

First, gold has overtaken both U.S. Treasuries and the dollar as the single largest reserve holding in the world. Gold now sits at 27% of global reserves against 22% for Treasuries and 15% for the euro. Second, Basel III elevated gold to Tier 1, putting it on the same risk footing as sovereign debt and cash, which lets institutions treat it as a functional reserve asset. Third, U.S. gold holdings have been carried on the books at $42.22 an ounce since 1973 and have never been revalued. Gareth walks through what a revaluation at market prices would do: roughly $1.13 trillion added to the balance sheet, a stopgap that buys the Treasury short-term room on debt issuance.

Gareth then opens the free gold calculator on VerifiedInvesting.com and walks through the five forces driving the cycle: debt issuance, global money supply growth, fiat mistrust, and real interest rates. Under current conditions the model points to roughly $9,700 in 2031 to 2033. Under Gareth's base case, with debt issuance averaging $2.8 trillion a year, money supply growth at 9%, accelerating fiat mistrust, and real rates drifting to zero, the peak moves up and forward to $13,600 in 2029 to 2031.

Then comes the part that surprised him. Measuring gold against M2 money supply rather than against the dollar, gold needs to rise just over 200% to match where that ratio stood in 1980. Gareth runs it live on the chart. It lands on $13,600.

Video Length: 00:17:05