Gold And Silver CoT: Who, What, Where, Why?

On its face, the Commitment of Traders (CoT) is bearish right now. The price of gold (PoG) is down another $26 since the CoT report last Tuesday, so it’s likely better. In gold based on recent trends, $26 seems to be about a 26,000 net change in spec position, or 88,000 net long. Another 10,000-12,000 (to 1,130-1,132) would be normal. So a further down test is quite possible, but another large break? Don’t think so.

I have already written that anymore the boyz in the sandboxes over trade and flip flop over a relatively small price changes. In fact, in silver the commercial net shorts went from 10,000 to 70,000 while silver moved from $14.50 to $16. So if there was a complete wash, rinse, repeat, would that be a buck and a half? And that’s assuming they go back to the 10,000 extreme.

And who knows who is who in these reports. Comments by Trader Dan state it’s “a very large number of funds.” If true, that would be problematic. But what if it was one or two hard-core funds? It is well known that some heavy-weight hedge-fund kingpins, like Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Singer, favor precious metals. Warren Buffet has taken large positions in the past. What about Eric Sprott?

Silver is a small market. The 50,000 contracts some are lathered up about is $375 million, chump change to a cabalist. And these men are perfectly capable of more active plotting. The CME seems to hardly care about position limits, and those can be hidden in multiple entities. I (and many others) have always wondered if someone could just clean out the little depositories in the Crimex and upset the apple cart. Could a big hedge fund kingpin be the one that does it?

Also of note, it is the merchant, processor, user group — not the swap dealers — that has the largest net-short position. This category actually uses the Crimex for hedging much more so than gaming. I have noticed almost no discussion of this in precious metal commentaries. Who is hedging and why is it a question? A theory: Certain producers have been talked or pressured into hedging production or inventories by banksters. And who would the banksters or Cabal be representing on the buy side of these transactions? Perhaps the aforementioned hedge fund kingpins?

We are not seeing a gold waterfall draining out of GLD anymore, as that has been stable since July. In the past, GLD flows correlate and even foreshadow PoG moves quite well.

Shanghai is what it is: 57 tonnes withdrawn last week. A year or two ago, 35 tonnes was the norm. The major Russian gold bank, VTB, is now an SGE member, indicating mined gold of Russian mining companies will move into China.