Thursday has brought another wave of important technical developments.
The U.S. dollar is extending its advance after yesterday's confirmed breakout, while several metals are facing renewed selling pressure.
Gold has fallen beneath important support, silver is approaching a critical psychological barrier, and copper is showing fresh signs of weakness across multiple time frames.
Meanwhile, platinum and palladium remain under pressure from their recent technical failures.
Which levels could determine the next significant moves?
Today, we're focusing on two particularly important developments.
Gold (GC.F) - The Bears Push Through Critical Support
In yesterday's Free Lab Note, we wrote the following:
“(…) Gold is now threatening the lower boundary of the black declining channel on D1 and the psychological 4000 barrier.
If sellers confirm a breakdown through those supports, attention could shift toward a far more consequential level.
What do we mean by that?
(…) the key long-term rising green support line (…) currently near 3955-3960 (…)”
From today’s perspective, we see Thursday’s developments have followed that bearish scenario.
Although buyers managed to defend the psychological 4000 barrier yesterday, sellers secured a daily close below the lower boundary of the black declining channel.
Thursday's Asian session subsequently opened with a fresh bearish gap at 3998-4000, pushing gold beneath the psychological barrier as well. The bears quickly seized the opportunity, driving prices below the long-term rising green support line visible on the weekly chart.
That puts the bulls in an increasingly difficult position.
Wednesday's confirmed breakdown below the black declining channel has activated a bearish scenario pointing toward a fresh local low near 3862, where the potential decline would equal the height of that channel.
If buyers fail to respond around that level and invalidate the breakdown below the October low, the selloff could extend toward 3805-3828. This area combines the two boundaries of the red declining wedge with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
What could disrupt the bearish scenario?
In our opinion, only a successful invalidation of yesterday's breakdown below the black declining channel.
Until then, the technical outlook remains unfavorable for buyers.
Daily Takeaways
Bearish development: Wednesday's confirmed breakdown below the black declining channel, followed by Thursday's bearish gap at 3998-4000, has strengthened selling pressure.
Downside targets: the next potential objective lies near 3862, followed conditionally by the 3805-3828 support zone if buyers fail to invalidate the breakdown below the October low.
Bullish invalidation: only a successful recovery above the black declining channel would invalidate the current bearish scenario. The long-term weekly support line near 3955-3960 remains an important reference.
Bottom Line: Gold has lost important support, and the bearish scenario is unfolding. The next downside objectives are near 3862 and, conditionally, 3805-3828.
Copper (HG.F) - Another Breakdown Raises the Stakes
Thursday's Asian session began with a fresh bearish gap at 626.50-629, offering the first warning of renewed trouble for copper buyers.
The bears wasted no time taking advantage.
Price dropped back below the lower boundary of the black declining channel and Wednesday's bullish gap, opening the way toward the lower boundary of the orange consolidation. However, sellers didn't stop at testing that support.
Copper also established a fresh local low, demonstrating just how difficult it has become for buyers to defend their previous lows.
The decline brought another important technical deterioration.
Copper fell beneath two critical support levels: the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on the weekly chart and the upper boundary of the pink rising channel on the monthly chart.
That's a distinctly unfavorable development for the bulls, even though the higher-time-frame breakdowns still require their respective closing confirmations.
Where Could the Bears Strike Next?
If buyers fail to organize a counterattack, the next downside target could emerge around 612.88, where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement provides the nearest support.
Nevertheless, failure to defend that level would expose another support area near 600-602.77.
But before Friday's weekly close provides further important clues, there's another daily development worth watching.
Recent sessions have remained within the range of the November 5 candle. Therefore, a daily close below the November 5 low would also confirm a breakdown below the orange consolidation on the daily chart, which would give sellers another technical argument in favor of pursuing lower prices.
Daily Takeaways
Bearish development: Thursday's gap at 626.50-629 preceded another decline below the black channel, Wednesday's bullish gap, weekly Fibonacci support at 622.89, and the upper boundary of the monthly rising channel.
Downside targets: failure to recover could expose 612.88, followed by the stronger support zone at 600-602.77.
Critical confirmations: a daily close below the November 5 low would confirm a breakdown from the orange consolidation. Friday's close below 622.89 would strengthen the weekly bearish signal, while the monthly channel requires confirmation at the November close.
Bottom Line: Copper's technical position is deteriorating across multiple time frames. The next potential downside targets are 612.88 and 600-602.77, while today's close relative to the November 5 low could provide another important bearish confirmation.
What About the Other Four Markets?
U.S. Dollar: Wednesday's confirmed breakout above the October peak and the orange consolidation has strengthened the bullish outlook. Today's advance is following the scenario outlined in our previous analysis, with additional upside targets remaining in focus.
Silver: Yesterday's recovery failed to establish a lasting breakout. A fresh bearish gap has now strengthened selling pressure, bringing an important psychological support level back into focus. Can buyers prevent another decline?
Platinum: Another unsuccessful attempt to overcome the red declining channel has reinforced the bearish case. The previously identified downside objectives remain relevant unless buyers manage to recover the key resistance combination.
Palladium: Following yesterday's failed intraday breakout, sellers are challenging important support levels again. Their ability to break through could determine whether the metal faces a deeper correction.
Final Thought - The Next Technical Test
A confirmed breakout can strengthen a market's outlook, while the loss of important support can quickly shift the balance toward sellers.
Thursday is providing examples of both, but even when the technical picture appears convincing, the closing prices remain essential.
The key is to distinguish between what the market has already confirmed and what still needs to be proven.
Stay focused, follow the evidence, and let the charts guide the next move.
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