GDPNow Goes Gangbusters

GDPNow as of today is 5.1% q/q AR for Q3:

Figure 1: GDP (black), August Survey of Professional Forecasters (purple), GDPNow (light blue square), Goldman Sachs tracking (inverted chartreuse triangle), NY Fed 9/11 (red triangle), September FT Booth (blue +). Source: BEA 2nd rel., Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, GS, NY Fed, FT-Booth, and author’s calculations.

GDPNow is well above other nowcasts, with consumption nowcasted to grow 4.1%, and – perhaps more importantly –  “core GDP” 4.7% q/q AR.

Interestingly, the just released FT-Booth forecast, for 2% q4/q4 growth, is more in line with the August SPF, and with the NY Fed nowcast and GS tracking (the FT-Booth 10/90 band is 1.5%-1.7%).