GBP/USD surged more than 1% on Wednesday after the US and Iran agreed to a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire, pushing Cable to a session high close to 1.3485. The rally faded through the North American session, however, with the pair slipping back to the 1.3400 region as doubts over the deal's durability mounted. Vice President JD Vance described the agreement as a "fragile truce," and Israel launched its largest assault on Lebanon since the war began, declaring the Hezbollah front excluded from the terms.
On the Pound Sterling side, Wednesday's UK data painted a soft picture. Halifax house prices fell 0.5% MoM in March against expectations of a 0.1% gain, while the S&P Global Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped to 45.6, well below the prior 44.5 reading. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) housing price balance plunged to negative 23%, its weakest since early 2024.
The Federal Reserve's (Fed) March meeting minutes, released Wednesday evening, confirmed that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11 to 1 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Officials flagged rising near-term inflation expectations driven by oil prices and tariffs, while most judged it too early to know how the conflict in the Middle East would affect the US economy. The median projection still calls for one 25 basis point cut this year, but several members noted that a rate hike could be appropriate if inflation stays above target.
Thursday brings the Bank of England's (BoE) Q1 Credit Conditions Survey, though higher-impact releases sit firmly on the US side of the docket. Thursday's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February, fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and weekly initial jobless claims will be closely watched, followed by Friday's March Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the University of Michigan's (UoM) preliminary April consumer sentiment and inflation expectations readings.
GBP/USD 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the 15-minute chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3399. The pair holds a modest bullish intraday bias as it trades above the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3354, keeping the latest rebound supported while short-term momentum remains constructive. The Stochastic RSI at around 81 sits in overbought territory, hinting that upside follow-through may slow even as the broader near-term structure stays underpinned above the 200-period EMA.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 200-period EMA at 1.3354, where a break lower would signal fading bullish pressure and expose deeper pullbacks toward prior intraday lows. As long as GBP/USD respects this moving average on dips, buyers are likely to defend the current consolidation, while overbought oscillators warn that fresh highs may attract profit-taking rather than a sustained breakout.
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