Fundamental Market Analysis for September 4, 2026 EURUSDJ

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

EURUSD:

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The euro maintains support due to an improving economic backdrop in the eurozone. Manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in over four years in August, while the services sector remained in growth territory. These figures reinforce the assessment of economic resilience and allow the market to factor in the possibility of an ECB rate hike in September.

The main factor for the current session remains the weakening expectations of further Fed policy tightening. Following more measured comments from a representative of the US regulator, the probability of a September rate hike has decreased, while expected slowdown in wage growth points to easing inflationary pressure from the labor market. As a result, the dollar lost some of its recent support ahead of the employment report publication.

The combination of more resilient business activity in the eurozone and softened expectations regarding the Fed creates room for further EURUSD growth. Strong US employment data could bring demand back for the dollar, but until such confirmation appears, the fundamental advantage remains with the euro.

Trade idea: BUY 1.1625, SL 1.1595, TP 1.1700

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