Fossil Kicks Off The Retail Earnings Blitz Tonight

Fossil kicks off the retail earnings blitz when they release results after today’s closing bell. Contributing analysts on Estimize are expecting Fossil’s earnings per share to come in at $1.84 for Q3, an increase of 26 cents (16.5%) compared to the same quarter of last year. Revenues are expected to grow by 9% year-over-year to $883.26 million. The overall textiles, apparel and luxury goods industry of the S&P 500, which Fossil is a part of, is anticipated to post year-over-year profit growth rate of 10.1%. Six of the eight companies in that industry have reported, and four have seen double digit earnings growth. Thus far, Coach has been the weakest link, with profits falling 31% since the year-ago quarter, while Michael Kors has been the biggest winner, with Q3 profits and revenues both increasing over 40%.

Other big names to watch for this week will be Macy’s on Wednesday, and Walmart, Kohl’s and Nordstrom on Thursday. After Fossil, Macy’s is expected to report the strongest bottom-line results among the retail reports this week. Currently, contributors to the Estimize platform are anticipating that the department store will post EPS of $0.53, which would show a year-over-year increase of 12%, and revs of $6.399B, an increase of 2%. The multiline retail industry, which Macy’s falls within, is expecting the lowest profit growth results of all the retailers at a measly 1.4%. A lot of this weakness is coming from the discounters, with Family Dollar Stores anticipating a 15% drop in profits and Target expected to be down 5.6%.

How Are We Doing?

Expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth for the third quarter stand at 11.6%. Revenues are anticipated to come in with 4.9% growth. All 10 sectors are anticipated to post positive YoY growth on both the earnings and revenue front.

Leaders

Earnings:

Energy (14.6%). Notable industry: Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels (14.6%)

Consumer Discretionary (14.3%). Notable industry: Internet Retailers (25.3%)

Health Care (13.9%). Notable industry: Biotechnology (45.1%)

Revenues:

Health Care (12.1%). Notable industry: Biotech (39.0%).

Information Technology (7.1%). Notable industry: Software (15.7%)

Laggards

Earnings:

Utilities (2.8%). Notable industry: Gas Utilities (-8.3%).

Telecommunication Services (1.4%): All five companies are within Diversified Telecom Services. Only Verizon posted y­o­y growth.

Revenues:

Energy (1.2%). Notable industry: Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels (­0.5%).

Materials (2.4%). Notable industry: Paper & Forest Products (­-18.3%).

Beat/Miss/Match

Earnings: With 90% of the S&P 500 reporting thus far, 56% have beaten the Estimize consensus, 34% have missed and 10% have met. This is compared to Wall Street estimates, of which 71% of companies have beat on the bottom­-line, 22% have missed and 7% have met.

Revenue: 52% have beaten the Estimize consensus, 48% have missed, and 0% have met. For revenues, 59% of companies have beat the Wall Street estimate, while 41% have missed.