Forex And Cryptocurrency Forecast For October 26–30, 2026

Markets enter the final week of October with an oil shock, a bond-market scare and three major central-bank decisions all competing for control. Brent crude finished the week at $116.93, its highest level since April 29 and a third straight weekly gain (+6.6%), after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, including the Red Sea port of Yanbu, an oil spill off the UAE and reports that Washington could resume strikes on Iran once the midterm elections are over. WTI closed at $103.27, up 3.8% on the day.

The spike collided with a sharp reversal in rates. A tech and AI-funding sell-off on Thursday sent investors into Treasuries and pushed the 10-year yield below 5% for the first time in a month, its biggest one-day drop in more than two years. It closed the week near 5.0%, about 11 basis points lower, and futures cut the odds of a rate hike at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting to roughly 7–8%, from about 52% a week earlier. A December hike is still priced at around 80–90%. The Dow fell 1.2% on Friday to 52,215, while the S&P 500 lost 0.5% and the Nasdaq 0.7% on the week.

Gold had its worst week in more than four months and slipped to a three-month low just under $4,000, while silver fell to a near one-year low. The euro stayed on the defensive: the eurozone flash composite PMI eased to 51.9 from 53.1, and French 10-year yields climbed above 5% for the first time since 2002 before Moody’s affirmed France’s Aa3 rating, with a negative outlook, after Friday’s close. Bitcoin and Ethereum both ended lower, with Bitcoin dropping below its 50-day average for the first time in 66 days. The Fed decision on Wednesday, the ECB and US Q3 GDP and PCE inflation on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan on Friday will set the next direction. Below are our baseline views for the main assets.

EUR/USD

The pair ended the week at 1.1203, down about 0.3%, after another failed attempt to hold above the 1.1240–1.1260 area. Friday’s flash PMIs added to the pressure: the eurozone composite fell to a four-month low, below the 52.7 consensus, and the French reading dropped below 50. The dollar index held near 101.6, close to a three-week low, as lower Treasury yields offset safe-haven demand, so the euro’s weakness is driven more by France and slowing growth than by dollar strength. The 2026 low of 1.1113, set on October 14, is the key level, with the 200-week average near 1.1105 just beneath it. The Fed and the ECB are both expected to hold, so the tone on December will matter more than the decisions themselves.

Base case: 1.1100–1.1270, with a cautious bias while the pair stays below 1.1260.

Resistance: 1.1260 and 1.1355.

Support: 1.1113 (2026 low) and 1.1000.

Brent

Brent finished at $116.93, up about 6.6% on the week and roughly 3% on Friday alone, as Houthi strikes on Saudi oil sites, the UAE spill and talk of renewed US action against Iran tightened supply fears. It was the third consecutive weekly advance, and the move has now taken the benchmark above the highs reached at the start of the Gulf conflict. After a rise of this size the market is stretched, so a de-escalation headline could remove several dollars quickly, but the risk premium keeps building while Hormuz and Red Sea flows remain under threat. Higher energy prices are also the main reason the Fed and ECB are still discussing hikes rather than cuts.

Base case: $108–122, with an upward bias while Gulf risks persist and sharp swings in both directions on geopolitical news.

Resistance: $117.5 and $120.

Support: $113.2 (Thursday settlement) and $108.8 (Wednesday settlement).

Gold

Gold settled around $4,010, down about 4.2% on the week, after touching a three-month low of $3,975 on Friday and trading below $4,000 for the first time since mid-July. Higher oil revived inflation fears and kept a December Fed hike in play even as October odds collapsed, so real-rate pressure outweighed safe-haven demand. The daily RSI is near 33 and price sits below its 20-day average near $4,149, which leaves room for an oversold bounce but no sign yet of a reversal. The Fed decision on Wednesday and PCE inflation on Thursday will decide whether $4,000 holds.

Base case: $3,900–4,150, with a cautious bias and a possible short-term bounce from oversold levels.

Resistance: $4,030 and $4,150.

Support: $3,975 (weekly low) and $3,900.

Silver

Silver fell about 5.6% to $53.96, its lowest level since November 2025, after a drop of roughly 7% on Thursday alone. The sell-off followed gold lower and was amplified by higher rate expectations and weaker risk appetite, and the gold/silver ratio widened above 74. A recovery above the $54.5–55.8 area would be the first sign that selling is easing, while a break below $53.5 would open the way to $52.4 and then $51.4.

Base case: $51.5–58.0, with a cautious bias and sharp two-way swings around the Fed decision.

Resistance: $55.8 and $58.1.

Support: $53.5 and $52.4.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin ended the week at $80,797, down about 1.0%, within a range of $80,512–84,879. It slipped below its 50-day average, near $81,800, for the first time in 66 days, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $635 million of net outflows on October 22. Risk appetite remains tied to equities and yields, so a Fed hold with a hawkish message on December would extend the pressure, while a softer tone could support a rebound. A daily close below $80,400 would open $79,700 and the high-$70,000s, while a recovery above $82,550 would repair the short-term picture.

Base case: $78,500–85,000, with a neutral-to-cautious tone.

Resistance: $82,550 and $84,900.

Support: $80,400 and $79,700.

Ethereum

Ethereum lost about 1.9% to $2,377.50, trading between $2,355 and $2,522 during the week and closing at its lowest level in a month. US spot Ether ETFs recorded $110.6 million of outflows on Friday, an early investor sold 3,000 ETH, and the planned Glamsterdam testnet upgrade was postponed. The coin again lagged Bitcoin and sits on a support area near $2,350. A move back above $2,520 would be needed to cancel the bearish scenario, and a loss of $2,350 would put $2,200 in focus, especially if Bitcoin slips below $80,000.

Base case: $2,250–2,550, with downside risk if Bitcoin loses $80,400.

Resistance: $2,444 and $2,520.

Support: $2,350 and $2,200.

Key events of the week

Monday, October 26: No major scheduled data; positioning ahead of the central-bank cluster.

Tuesday, October 27: FOMC meeting begins; US consumer confidence; ECB bank lending survey.

Wednesday, October 28: Fed rate decision (2:00 pm ET) and press conference by Chair Kevin Warsh; Bank of Canada and RBNZ decisions; UK Autumn Budget; Australian CPI.

Thursday, October 29: ECB rate decision; US Q3 GDP (advance estimate) and September PCE inflation (8:30 am ET).

Friday, October 30: Bank of Japan decision; German and eurozone Q3 GDP; German CPI; Tokyo CPI.

Quarterly results from several mega-cap technology companies continue through the week, and the US midterm elections follow on November 3.